Most Democrat and Republican city in each state with description (user search)
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  Most Democrat and Republican city in each state with description (search mode)
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Author Topic: Most Democrat and Republican city in each state with description  (Read 2682 times)
Schiff for Senate
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« on: July 06, 2022, 12:40:20 AM »

Using the same method and format as Boss Benjamin from above

Top Five Democratic - North Carolina

  • D+71.3 - Chapel Hill, Orange County (Population 61,960) - Majority white college town. 62% White, 17% Asian, just 11% Black. Very liberal and highly-educated.
  • D+68.2 - Durham, Durham County (Population 283,506) - Next door neighbor to Chapel Hill. Much more racially diverse -- 38.6% White, 38.6% Black, 15.3% Hispanic, 6.9% Asian. Similar reasons for voting D and big high-tech sector as well
  • D+56.7 - Asheville, Buncombe County (Population 94,589) - White tourism town in the Western Mountains. 74% White and 12% Black. Again, very liberal and highly educated.
  • D+43.3 - Greensboro, Guilford County (Population 299,035) - Racially diverse big city in western half of the state. Used to be a lot more Republican (Was just Hagan +33.6 in 2014) but has swung left since then. 38.6% White and 44.8% Black.
  • D+43.2 - Charlotte, (Population 874,579) - State's biggest city. Similar political make-up to Greensboro. Was just Hagan +30.7 in 2014, now a lot bluer. 39.7% White, 35.4% Black. Interestingly enough, still a lot closer for non-Presidential races -- was just Cunningham +37.1, though the 2016 Lieutenant Governor Race (Just Coleman +29.1) is probably the best Republicans are doing here for a long time.

Top Five Republican - North Carolina

  • R+25.1 - Mooresville, Iredell County (Population 50,193) - Exurb of Charlotte. Swung left since 2016 -- was Trump +33 then. Was one of the places that sunk McCrory in 2016 (anger over local toll disputes led him to get just a 3600 vote margin here, even as Trump got a 6200 margin). 70% White. 13% Black. 6% Asian.
  • R+10.4 - Kannapolis, Rowan and Cabarrus Counties (Population 53,114) - Also a exurb of Charlotte. Diversifying pretty rapidly (Went from 66% White in 2010 to 55% now.) Hasn't swung left as much as that might indicate though -- Trump +16.6 in 2016 and +10.4 in 2020. 55% White, 25% Black, 16% Hispanic.
  • R+3.8 - Gastonia, Gaston County (Population 80,411) - Another Charlotte exurb (you may be beginning to notice a trend here) although it's also it's own city in a way the others aren't (Charlotte's suburban growth has extended less westwards than east or northwards.) 51% White, 33% Black, 13% Hispanic. Has gotten more diverse since 2010, when it was 62% White, 28% Black, and 9% Hispanic. Hasn't swung too much either way -- went from Trump +6.5 in 2016 to Trump +3.8 in 2020, similar to the nation.
  • R+3.6 - Jacksonville, Onslow County (Population 72,723) - Our only non-Charlotte exurb on this list. A military base/beach town in Eastern NC. Was 62% White, 13% Hispanic, and 22% Black in 2010, 53% White, 19% Hispanic, and 22% Black in 2010. Not actually growing too much -- total population rose by just 2,000 from 2010 to 2020, even as the county as a whole grew by 11.3% and more than 22,000 people, probably because most of the growth is going to the nearby suburbs. Went from Trump +9.9 in 2016 to +3.4 in 2020.  
  • D+1.6 - Concord, Cabarrus County (Population 105,240) - Another Charlotte exurb. Growing rapidly -- went from 80k in 2010 to 105k now. 66% White, 18% Black, and 13% Hispanic in 2010 to 53% White, 25% Black, and 14% Hispanic. Swinging hard left -- Trump +9.8 in 2016 to Biden +1.6 in 2020.

Just FOUR cities in NC broke for Trump? Genuinely shocked.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2022, 08:00:00 PM »

Fifty thousand is actually way too low for CA. By my count, 75 cities have populations 100,000 or higher, so there are probably like 100+ cities with north of 50,000 people. So I'm actually making the benchmark 120,000 people. I believe 52 cities meet that bar (2020 Census). Aside from the city's county and population, I also mention its rank out of California's cities. Lastly, I included the sixth most liberal and conservative cities rather than just the five most. Incredibly, three of the bluest cities are right here in my home county of Alameda (in fact, all three are in west-northwest Alameda County). Four bluest cities are in the Bay Area.

Top Six Democratic - CALIFORNIA

  • D+89.8 - Berkeley, Alameda County (Pop. 124,321; Rank 51st) - Straightforward. University city (near Oakland); home to UC Berkeley. Trump actually finished THIRD here in 2016, behind Jill Stein - this time, he received about twice as many votes as third-party and independent candidates combined (4.0% to 2.0%). 2010 to 2020 growth was 10.4%. It's 50% non-Hispanic white, 20% Asian and 14% Hispanic. Density is nearly 12,000 people per square mile. Naturally much more educated and wealthy than the US as a whole (percent of 25+ who have a bachelor's degree or higher in the US is 32.9%; it's 73.1% in Berkeley; and MHI is over $90,000 compared to less than $70,000 nationally).
  • D+84.1 - Oakland, Alameda County (Pop. 440,656; Rank 8th) - Situated in the northwest portion of Alameda County, near Berkeley. Definitely one of the most diverse cities in the country. It's plurality white, but it's just 27% non-Hispanic white, 27% Hispanic, 24% black, and 16% Asian. MHI is higher than the US, at over $80,000 (US's is under $70,000), and it's more educated, with the bachelor's degree or higher rate for 25+ at 46.1% to 32.9% nationally. Density is close to 8,000 people a square mile.
  • D+72.6 - San Francisco (Pop. 873,965; Rank 4th)Butt of right-wing jokes and major symbol of cultural, social and economic progressivism (but with an emphasis on the first two). A lot of conservatives see San F.'s population summarised with three H's (homos, hobos and hippies), and they aren't wrong. Gay capitol of the USA, home of the notorious Nancy Pelosi, and has a massive hippie counterculture (arguably more than any other city). Haight and Ashbury and everything. Anyway, 39% non-Hispanic white, 34% Asian (including 21% Chinese), 16% Hispanic (8% Mexican), and 5% black. 35% atheist and a majority are non-Christian. Density is nearly 19,000 people a square mile. Very educated (58.8% of 25+ with bachelor's or higher to 32.9% nationally) and wealthy (MHI is close to $120,000 - more than 75% higher than the national MHI).
  • D+56.3 - Hayward, Alameda County (Pop. 162,954; Rank 34th) - Also in western Alameda. MHI is $91,490, much higher than the national, but the education level is surprisingly a bit lower than national - 29.8% of 25+ with bachelor's+, compared to 32.9% nationally. A large plurality of the population is Hispanic - 39.5% Hispanic, 30% white and 28% Asian.
  • D+56.2 - Pasadena, Los Angeles County (Pop. 138,699; Rank 44th) - Bluest SoCal city. It's a suburb of LA, and quite dense (north of 6,000 people a square mile). Very narrowly plurality Hispanic: 34.9% Hispanic and 34.6% non-Hispanic white, with 18% Asian and 8% black. MHI is high, at over $85,000, and education wise, a majority of those 25 and over are armed with bachelor's degrees (if not higher).
  • D+55.8 - Sunnyvale, Santa Clara County (Pop. 155,805; Rank 36th) - In the Bay Area. Density: 6,800 per square mile. 29% non-Hispanic white, 17% Hispanic, and a solid 48% Asian, making it strongly plurality-Asian. MHI is over twice the national - over $150,000 - and 65.9% of 25+ people have at least a bachelor's degree. Grew at a rate faster than national from 2010 to 2020, but not that much faster.

Top Six Republican - CALIFORNIA

  • R+14.1 - Clovis, Fresno County (Pop. 120,124; Rank 52nd) - North suburb of Fresno that's been rapidly growing (grew over 25% from 2010 to 2020). The density is nearly 5,000 people a square mile. Just barely majority-minority - 49.5% non-Hispanic white, 33% Hispanic and 11% Asian. Bachelor's+ rate for 25+ is a little higher than the national; MHI is over $80,000.
  • R+10.1 - Visalia, Tulare County (Pop. 141,384; Rank 42nd) - A good amount north of Bakersfield, though Tulare borders Kern and their border separates NorCal from SoCal. It has close to 4,000 people a square mile. Majority-Hispanic: just 38% of the population is non-Hispanic white, while 51% is Hispanic (also 6% Asian and 3% black). The bachelor's+ rate for the 25+ is very low, at 22.5%. MHI is very similar to the national, but just a smidge lower.
  • R+3.3 - Huntington Beach, Orange County (Pop. 198,711; Rank 23rd) - Leftwards trending, affluent suburb of LA on the coast. Classic Orange County, historically Republican suburbia, that's been diversifying (though it grew only 4.6% from 2010 to 2020) and liberalising to the point that Trump's 2020 margin was quite narrow (it was Romney+16 in 2012, Trump+6 in 2016 and Trump+3 in 2020 - this city even went for Goldwater in 1964 and presumably last went blue in 1936, or maybe even before that). It is 61% non-Hispanic white, 19% Hispanic and 13% Asian. Unsurprisingly, the MHI is very high, at close to a hundred thousand, and 43.6% of the 25+ population has bachelor degree or higher.
  • R+3.1 - Bakersfield, Kern County (Pop. 403,455; Rank 9th) - The biggest city in CA to go for Trump, by a lot. In the northern part of SoCal. Home to a good number of undocumented immigrants. It and Kern have been moving leftwards (Bakersfield went red by 12.7 points even in the 2008 wave), but both are historically fairly conservative, and though the margin was narrow, Trump held on to Bakersfield (he won Kern more comfortably, by about 15 points or so if I remember right). Not even 3,000 people a square mile. It is the "frontier delineating" the Sureno (Southern) and Norteno (Northern) gangs' territories. Republicans Devin Nunes and Kevin McCarthy are from the area. It is 29% non-Hispanic white, and majority Hispanic. High poverty rate and the MHI is a bit lower than the national rate. Bachelor's degree + rate for the 25+ is a lot lower than the national rate - at just 22.5%.
  • R+1.4 - Roseville, Placer County (Pop. 141,500; Rank 39th) - In northeast CA. MHI is over $95,000, and bachelor's degree + for those 25+ is also reasonably high, at 43.5%. 66.4% non-Hispanic white, 16% Hispanic, 12% Asian.
  • D+0.9 - Simi Valley, Ventura County (Pop. 126,356; Rank 48th) - Near the Ventura County - LA County border. Was Trump+4 in 2016, Romney+12 in 2012, and Bush+23 in 2008, so it's been trending leftwards recently, but not that fast. MHI is close to a hundred thousand, and it's not particularly educated, with 33.9% of 25+ having a bachelor's degree or more. Density is apparently exactly 3,000 people a square mile, which is neat.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #2 on: July 07, 2022, 05:11:09 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2022, 05:24:51 PM by CentristRepublican »

It's very alienating and masculine-nerd-compartmentalizing Atlas Brain how folks here are only viewing these places as a collection of statistics relevant to #trends rather than engaging with their geography or history or economy or sociopolitical culture. Gee, I wonder why Butte is Dem-leaning despite being Muh Unwashed Uneducated WWC (no, it has nothing to do with Montana Tech, you dingus)...

I’m sorry I couldn’t provide some detailed microanalysis of why CA’s cities voted the way they do. It literally took hours to even figure out the bluest and reddest and their Census data, and I am no expert about most of CA. So instead of wasting time and acting like I know a lot about places I don’t, I just provided some stats I thought were relevant. If you or anybody else knows more about these cities and would like to share, please, go ahead and share your expertise. My goal was mainly to just find the bluest and reddest cities, not to do some deep-dive analysis about the voters’ physiologies or the cities’ histories. If you think you are up to figuring out the bluest/reddest cities  and then writing the microanalysis you’re demanding, please go ahead. I notice you haven’t done it yourself, but are attacking others who at least took the time to do part of it. No, no I did not write a microanalysis - I only figured out the bluest and reddest cities and then added some stats. Sorry if that’s insufficient for you. You think you can give a microanalysis about them - I’m under no illusions that I can - you can go ahead and do that instead of attacking others for not doing it. Sorry for not “engaging with their geography.” If it has “nothing to do with Montana Tech” or a place’s income and demographics, why don’t you go ahead and tell us exactly why all these cities vote the way they do instead of condescending to others who’ve put in effort and actually done at least some of the work involved.
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Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
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Posts: 12,341
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« Reply #3 on: July 07, 2022, 05:15:55 PM »
« Edited: July 07, 2022, 05:25:59 PM by CentristRepublican »

It's very alienating and masculine-nerd-compartmentalizing Atlas Brain how folks here are only viewing these places as a collection of statistics relevant to #trends rather than engaging with their geography or history or economy or sociopolitical culture. Gee, I wonder why Butte is Dem-leaning despite being Muh Unwashed Uneducated WWC (no, it has nothing to do with Montana Tech, you dingus)...

I didn't bother asking why they're Democrats or attempt to answer that quesiton. Feel free to do so if you feel like it.

This. I only really wanted to find out what those cities were, not do some deep analysis that explained its history and why the voters vote the way they do or whatnot. I don’t know a massive amount about them. Disco might, so if they want to do the deep analysis, they can. But it’s arrogant to assume everybody should be held to that same standard and write an article about each of the cities. Finding em was hard enough, and it’s honestly what I was interested in, not writing some long analysis about it when I honestly am no expert on them. Somebody else (maybe Disco) can supplement what I wrote with some deep analysis. I haven’t written one, and nor did I know that it was apparently required.
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Schiff for Senate
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Posts: 12,341
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2022, 08:32:13 PM »

Decided to randomly do New Mexico. Only 20 cities/villages/towns by my count even have 10,000 people, so decided to go with that as the benchmark - but listed all of them. Didn't bother doing any analysis since I know next to nothing about NM's regional politics. Using 2020 presidential results. In parentheses is the 2016 presidential result - most of these cities/towns/villages, as you can see, swung rightward. Only one of the cities, Deming, in the southern part of the state, flipped - it went from supporting Clinton by nearly 7 points in 2016 to backing Trump narrowly in 2020.


Santa Fe, Santa Fe County: D+63.7 (D+60.3)
Las Vegas, San Miguel County: D+46.6 (D+55.0)
Sunland Park, Dona Ana County: D+39.3 (D+56.4)
Espanola, Rio Arriba County: D+27.9 (D+39.1)
Los Alamos (County): D+26.6 (D+20.2)
Albuquerque, Bernalillo County: D+26.5 (D+19.1)
Gallup, McKinley County: D+22.3 (D+18.3)
Las Cruces, Dona Ana County: D+20.7 (D+17.0)
Deming, Luna County: R+1.5 (D+6.8 )
Rio Rancho, Sandoval County: R+1.7 (R+8.5)
Los Lunas, Valencia County: R+5.0 (R+6.8 )
Alamogordo, Otero County: R+22.7 (R+29.7)
Portales, Roosevelt County: R+28.8 (R+26.1)
Clovis, Curry County: R+34.8 (R+38.3)
Roswell, Chaves County: R+35.3 (R+31.1)
Farmington, San Juan County: R+39.1 (R+35.8 )
Carlsbad, Eddy County: R+39.9 (R+27.6)
Hobbs, Lea County: R+51.1 (R+39.8 )
Lovington, Lea County: R+58.2 (R+44.5)
Artesia, Eddy County: R+65.7 (R+60.5)
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2022, 08:45:28 PM »

Making a map to see which states posters have done and which remain:



Anyone who wants to can/should do one of the blue states.
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