I'm too lazy to reiterate my points about Rubio's strengths in Miami-Dade County, so just see what I've written in previous posts related to this subject. And in answer to your question, I can see Rubio winning Miami-Dade County, though it's unlikely, or perhaps losing it but by plurality:
Dade County gubernatorial results by year:
| Year | Dem | Rep | Margin |
| 2018 | 59.94% | 39.00% | 20.95 pp |
| 2014 | 58.44% | 39.32% | 19.12 pp |
| 2010 | 56.29% | 42.00% | 14.29 pp |
| 2006 | 53.32% | 45.30% | 8.02 pp |
| 2002 | 46.47% | 52.96% | 6.50 pp |
| 1998 | 47.51% | 52.49% | 4.99 pp |
| 1994 | 52.04% | 47.96% | 4.09 pp |
| 1990 | 62.69% | 37.31% | 25.37 pp |
| 1986 | 49.28% | 50.72% | 1.43 pp |
I'm not seeing any rightward trend here; what I am seeing is four consecutive elections where Democratic performance improved from the previous election. Are you basing your statement entirely on the results of the 2020 presidential election?
Not entirely. It's also based on the fact that Rubio being Cuban may give him an advantage, and add to that the fact that 2022 may well be a good GOP year, and that might put Rubio over the edge in Miami-Dade in 2022. Murphy beat Rubio by far less than the margins in your table; he won by just 11.3%. While the 'just' seems unwarranted, you need to remember Trump lost Miami-Dade by even less, and I imagine some Murphy/Trump voters will switch to Rubio. In addition he already likely has some Cuban Biden voters, which he should largely retain, and he'll likely do better overall given the expected red wave year. Perhaps outright victory is unlikely, but it's plausible, and a plurality victory for Demings is a serious possibility.
What Democrats shouldn't try to do is to pretend, even to themselves, that Florida is in play. I can see that most of them expect OH to go red, but they're less pessmistic about Florida - well, they really should be. Rubio won by 7.7% in 2016 after breaking a promise to not run. Let's say the 2022 environment nationally is somewhat similar to 2016. Well, even then, Rubio will win - BY A LOT, as Trump would say. In 2016 Rubio kept the margin down in Miami-Dade County. Since it's shifted to the right and Rubio (who is Cuban) is popular there, I don't see it altogether out of the question that it goes Republican, or Democratic by plurality. And with Miami-Dade Rubio's margin will likely go up to 9% or so.
I mostly agree with your map, but I don't think it would be overestimating Rubio's support to make Florida Safe Republican. It voted for him by 7.7% in 2016, and 2022 will very possibly be a better year for the GOP. And because Southeast Florida's politics may have shifted to the right, Rubio (who is Cuban), could even possibly flip Miami-Dade County, sealing his win and expanding his margin. My guess, given Southeast FL's rightward shift, the fact that 2022 will likely be a red year, and Rubio's popularity in the state, is that he win's by at least 9% or so, maybe 10%. I can guarantee that no Democrat will beat him, whoever they nominate in 2022 - Demings, Crist, Murphy or Fried.
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