2012: President Edwards vs. Mitt Romney (Scandal comes out before election day)

[Schiff for Senate]

Pretty much what you predicted, excpet I figure New Mexico would stay blue, and probably Wisconsin goes red:



If this were the 2020 election, VA and CO would be Democratic, definitely, but in 2012, Colorado and Virginia were both redder. I think Edwards could hold on to Colorado and/or Virginia if the affair had broken maybe a month or two before the election, but since it occured just five days before and there was no way for the Edwards campaign to do damage control, he did really bad.