PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[Schiff for Senate]

This ad should just be on power rotation until Nov:

https://twitter.com/jjabbott/status/1554658183590944771

Great ad.

[Schiff for Senate]

Take a look at Shapiro's new ad. It's brutal. About the only thing it doesn't do is explicitly call Mastriano a Nazi.

Honestly, when it comes to a guy like Mastriano, the attack ads literally write themselves.

[Schiff for Senate]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

[Schiff for Senate]

Okay, I'm sorry, this is borderline Likely-D at this point.

In practice, it's Likely D and closer to Safe than Lean. The margin won't be crazily high though (Shapiro will certainly do worse than Wolf did in 2014/2018, especially in the rurals).

Well Wolf 2014 and 2018 are two different things. I definitely think it's possible for Shapiro to duplicate a margin like Wolf 2014, in fact it's what CBS/YouGov and Muhlenberg are looking like right now.

The rural margins will be interesting. Shapiro has been making it a point to go to red counties this entire cycle.

Going to red counties is basically a feature of any Dem running serious campaign in a swing state. Now how genuine and invested that outreach is is really what matters, cause so many do it just for optics.

The Salena Zito piece above basically shows how it's not just for optics.

Overwhelmingly Republican areas aren't going to vote for Democratic candidates. They might have twenty or thirty years ago, but not now, in this highly polarized era. However, there is the hope that denting the Republican margins in those areas might help the Democratic nominee overall. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by utterly crushing Hillary Clinton in those very areas.

Obviously. And literally nobody is saying that they will. What you're saying is all quite true, but frankly, it's just as obvious, and I think we all know that anyway. I mean, when we're talking about Shapiro campaigning in a county like (just pulling this one out of the hat) Huntingdon, he's obviously not trying to *win* it. He doesn't have a prayer of winning a Trump+51 county, no matter what happens. However, what he's hoping to do is to reduce the margin of loss from 51 points to, say, 45 points or so, instead. And we all know that.

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm taking the plunge and moving this to Safe D.

In practice, that's precisely what it is.

[Schiff for Senate]

Shapiro is absolutely a future Presidential candidate. People in the handshake line after the rally yesterday were telling him "Don't stop at Governor." He clearly has studied Obama and I would expect him to run in 2028.

I saw one clip of a speech from him on YouTube - and it was genuinely very, very good: better than most political speeches I hear nowadays. He wins this - which he will - he could be presidential material later down the road. Governing a large, purple state - comfortably defeating (as I expect he will) a far-rightist to do so - is certainly an impressive resume to have.


I also just heard this from Jonathan Karl - sorry if someone's already posted it, but otherwise I definitely think it's worth sharing: this is going to be the first time since before the GOP's foundation that the Democrats win three gubernatorial races back-to-back in the Keystone State. What will really be the capper is if all three are decided by solid margins, as well - Wolf won by 9.8% in 2014 and 17.1% in 2018; if Shapiro can win by, say, 7 points or more, I'd call that 'solid' (he might, he might not - I know he's winning but a 7 point or greater win is not guaranteed).

[Schiff for Senate]

Shapiro is projected to have won the PA-GOV race.

Not a surprise at all - I at least have called this one Safe D for a while, but a few GOP hacks (cough cough "citizenq" et. al. will be disappointed) - but as the results continue to trickle in, what'll be interesting to see is his margin.