2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Kansas

[Schiff for Senate]

A fair map I drew without any regard whatsoever to political results: https://districtr.org/plan/102611. My goal was to make the 1st as big as possible while limiting county splits to the lowest amount possible there and keeping the district generally compact.

[Schiff for Senate]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

MD Democrats have an overwhelming legislative supermajority and were more or less united around the plan. With KS, there are a few defectors/holdeouts, which is just enough to fall short of the required supermajority, since the KSGOP's supermajorities are very narrow.

[Schiff for Senate]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

MD Democrats have an overwhelming legislative supermajority and were more or less united around the plan. With KS, there are a few defectors/holdeouts, which is just enough to fall short of the required supermajority, since the KSGOP's supermajorities are very narrow.

Umm they’re almost the same - and actually Kansas Republicans have bigger numbers

Maryland

State House of Reps • 99 DEM - 42 GOP • (70% Dem)

State Senate • 32 DEM - 15 GOP • (68% Dem)

Kansas

State House of Reps • 86 GOP - 39 DEM • (68% GOP)

State Senate • 29 GOP - 11 DEM • (73% GOP)

My mistake (but then Phips' comment explains it, then - MD Democrats' majority comfortably clears the MD override threshold, whereas KS Republicans' majority clears the KS override threshold more narrowly).

[Schiff for Senate]

This has to be the most dramatic redistricting of any state so far. Stakes are super-high...and as others have said, for what? Maybe they flip KS03 in 2022 but trends will catch up very soon, especially given that I believe KS03 is still a Biden seat that's trending sharply leftwards.

Anyway, this is definitely worth watching and I'd like to thank BoiseBoy for giving us regular updates.

[Schiff for Senate]

I hope this map gets litigated. It deserves to suffer the fate of OH and NC. KS GOP is one of the most idiotic, spineless state parties in existence.

Thank god for the KS Supreme Court.

Honestly, though, that's what I find most bewildering.
If any outsider saw all of the drama that went down, they'd think it was a very powerful/effective gerrymander, but it really doesn't even do anything (it's not like it totally cracks up KS03 or something). It might give them KS03 for two or maybe four years, but the trends and the fact that it's a Biden district make me think it's about 50-50 in 2022 and is gone for the GOP thereafter. As Minnesota Mike said:

After all this drama Davids probably still wins.

Surprised they cleared the hurdle.

Yeah at first it seemed confusing to have the 1st take in Lawrence but it really makes sense on second go. Taking in Wyandotte means you have to take in 250k non rural areas if you include Leavenworth county. Lawrence is a much smaller 90k. Taking in 250k non rural areas means you to persuade like 11 or 12 state reps in Western Kansas. Taking in Lawrence just means 3 or 4 have to be done. Well crafted gerrymander considering the various parochial interests of Kansas representatives. Likely all for naught in the end.

What would be the grounds for the court to toss the Pubmander?

I think Democrats should just relax. The map is somewhat gerrymandered but it's not like it'll help the GOP whatsoever in the long run - maybe it fetches them 4-0 in 2022 but that's about it. Instead be worried about and/or file lawsuits in places like TN and GA.







My hot take about KS is that despite all the noise and controversy and KY's is being appluaded as a non-gerrymander/fair map because it didn't crack Lousiville, KS' map will do less to actually help the GOP in practice in the long run than KY's. Because KS03, as I've said, might flip in 2022 - and even that's iffy - and is gone for the GOP after that, while the old KY06 was Democrats' long-term opportunity to get a 4-2 in KY. Now obviously the GOP could've been much worse but they still did slightly redden the 6th / shore up Barr, since they removed Frankfort from the district and put it in a totally random western district. If you want to cry foul about gerrymandering in a K state with a GOP legislative supermajority but a Democratic governor, do so about KY, not KS. The two reasons I think people are letting the KYGOP off the hook and getting so hung up about KS is because KS is what will have more tangible effects in 2022 and deviates from the status quo while KY's has no obvious short term effects and does not, and also (somewhat related to the previous point) people had really low expectations about what was going to happen in KY with the Louisville split and whatnot, and they were probably so relieved it didn't happen that they overlooked much more subtle gerrymandering down in Frankfort.

[Schiff for Senate]

Surprised they cleared the hurdle.

Yeah at first it seemed confusing to have the 1st take in Lawrence but it really makes sense on second go. Taking in Wyandotte means you have to take in 250k non rural areas if you include Leavenworth county. Lawrence is a much smaller 90k. Taking in 250k non rural areas means you to persuade like 11 or 12 state reps in Western Kansas. Taking in Lawrence just means 3 or 4 have to be done. Well crafted gerrymander considering the various parochial interests of Kansas representatives. Likely all for naught in the end.

What would be the grounds for the court to toss the Pubmander?

Similar to North Carolina, Kansas has provisions establishing equal protection, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, etc. which if you strech you could see how that would justify striking down a partisan gerrymander.

Thanks. And why does one assume the KS high court is as activist and partisan as the NC high court?

It won't be. Let's face it, SCONC is inherently more partisan than the KS Supreme Court. You elect justices and they have partisan affiliations. It's never a good idea to inject more partisanship into courts than their already is, and when you're actually electing them and they're obviously identified with the GOP or Democrats, expect party-line decisions similar to legislative votes and expect all decisions to be partisan. KS's Supreme Court isn't nearly as wild or partisan as NC's; also, NC had a very blatant gerrymander whereas KS', as I already said, does little in 2022 and absolutely nothing later in the decade. I wouldn't lose any sleep over KS, though, because of just how tame a gerrymander it is.

[Schiff for Senate]

Surprised they cleared the hurdle.

Yeah at first it seemed confusing to have the 1st take in Lawrence but it really makes sense on second go. Taking in Wyandotte means you have to take in 250k non rural areas if you include Leavenworth county. Lawrence is a much smaller 90k. Taking in 250k non rural areas means you to persuade like 11 or 12 state reps in Western Kansas. Taking in Lawrence just means 3 or 4 have to be done. Well crafted gerrymander considering the various parochial interests of Kansas representatives. Likely all for naught in the end.

What would be the grounds for the court to toss the Pubmander?

Similar to North Carolina, Kansas has provisions establishing equal protection, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, etc. which if you strech you could see how that would justify striking down a partisan gerrymander.

Thanks. And why does one assume the KS high court is as activist and partisan as the NC high court?

I just googled it and it seems that NYS also has an equal protection clause. How interesting.

https://law.justia.com/constitution/new-york/article-i/section-11/

The takeaway from this is that state high courts are going hard partisan (or making it more obvious) and damaging their reputations. And that is a more worrisome development than the most outrageous of gerrymanders. When courts go down the drain, we don't have much left.

Shame. I always genuinely thought courts would be less partisan / more decent than that. My question is then, are you elected to the NY Supreme Court or appointed? Your answer may explain a lot, because as I said in my previous post, courts were judges are elected (such as the North Carolina Supreme Court) are inherently partisan.

[Schiff for Senate]

https://twitter.com/sfstatejournal/status/1512049090527387651
Ad Astra likely dead.

Idiotic lawsuit, why did they even bring up racial gerrymandering?. Even the NC case didn't touch it for smart reasons. I still expect it to get struck down  but they may have opened to federal courts.

Yeah I don't get how it's a 'racial gerrymander.' Partisan gerrymander, yeah, but not a racial gerrymander.