hcallega
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,523
Political Matrix
E: -1.10, S: -3.90
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« on: February 12, 2015, 01:47:33 PM » |
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If the GOP nominates Jeb Bush (or any establishment conservative) in 2016: The right-wing/Tea Party crowd will be in a much stronger position then they are today. Very possible that a Tom Cotton or Rand Paul-esque candidate wins the nomination. If that's the case, then Hillary will be the favorite (but again, winning the White House in four straight elections is pretty remarkable.)
If the GOP nominates a Tea Partier in 2016: The Republicans turn to a more establishment type (Snyder, Ayotte, someone of that mold) and is the favorite. As others have noted, the economy is probably not going to be as strong in 2020 as it likely will be in 2016. If the Republicans nominate a solid candidate, they will have a great shot at winning.
So overall the candidate and the economy matter the most. If the economy is good and the GOP nominates a fringe candidate than Hillary is the favorite. If the reverse is true than she is the underdog. If the economy is strong and the GOP nominates an establishment candidate, Hillary is the slight (very slight) favorite. Same if they nominate a weak candidate and the economy is weak.
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