I read on WaPo the other day about 62% of returns thus far were early ballots, over 280,000 of them. If that is indeed true, Quist has ever so slight a chance to no chance. Out of the 648,764 registered voters in 2016 only 293,548 of them voted and Montana is a heavily lean R state. Gianforte will probably take office and face a censure within his first week. As Trump would say, SAD!
In Montana, you can still change your vote if you submitted an early ballot
And even so, Quist probably had a 35% chance going in, ignoring this incident. As VAModerate says, it's Montana - why wouldn't we have a pickup opportunity?