College Football 2016

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Today marks two weeks until the start of the 2016 season kicking off with Hawaii and Berkeley facing off in New South Wales, and I am preparing by watching the fabulous 'Last Chance U' documentary, but even that can't satisfy my excitement enough!

While Alabama looks to start its title streak back up, FCS-title favorite North Dakota State kicks off their season two weeks from tomorrow with eyes set on their 6th consecutive championship to tie Georgia Southern for the all-time cumulative record! Here's to hoping both of those happen in a thrilling year!

Use this thread to discuss Big 12 expansion (Houston and Cinci - or Memphis - please!), predictions for the upcoming season, or current news from camps.

My preview with a few darkhorse picks.

American: I view Tulsa as an extremely dangerous team, and I could easily see a 9 win season coming. SMU is a similarly high-powered offense that could finally pull upsets this year as they grow, but they are not at the same level yet. In spite of that, Greg Ward is the top dog and show stealer. The east is highly competitive, and I wouldn't be surprised by most orders. UCF will be much improved, but USF is the most talented with little doubt.
Memphis remains highly overrated by most outlets. Little to be hyped about.
1) USF; 2) Temple (no homer :/); 3) Cincinnati; 4) Connecticut; 5) ECU; 6) UCF
1) Houston; 2) Tulsa; 3) Navy; 4) SMU; 5) Memphis; 6) Tulane
HOUSTON over USF

ACC: I actually have a great deal of respect for FSU this year, but that schedule is mighty, mighty rough - if they survive it, more power to them, but I like Louisville just as much as the two giants too. No idea how to pick the middle of the other side though.
1) Clemson; 1b) Louisville; 3) Florida State; 4) NC State; 5) Wake Forest; 6) Cuse; 7) BC
1) UNC; 2) Miami; 3) Virginia Tech; 4) Pittsburgh; 5) Duke; 6) Georgia Tech; 7) Virginia
CLEMSON over UNC

Big 12: Baylor gets hit even harder than expected :/ - Should be one of the easier conference titles, but could they be starting with 2 OOC losses? OU @ TCU in Week 5 after an OU bye and multiple tests could be a game of the year.
1) Oklahoma; 2) TCU; 3) Texas Tech; 4) Oklahoma State; 5) West Virginia; 6) Baylor; 7) Texas; Kansas State; 9) Iowa State; 100) Kansas

Big Ten: Indiana the big surprise as many pick, Michigan and Northwestern big disappointments though, especially the latter from the get-go.
1) Ohio State; 2) Michigan State; 3) Michigan; 4) Indiana; 5) Penn State; 6) Maryland; 7) Rutgers
1) Iowa; 2) Wisconsin; 3) Nebraska; 4) Minnesota (super-soft schedule); 5) Northwestern; 6) Illinois; 7) Purdue
IOWA led by Dez King - best player in the nation - come in hungry over Ohio State

C-USA:
1) Western Kentucky; 2) Marshall; 3) Middle Tennessee State; 4) Old Dominion; 5) FAU; 6) FIU; 7) Charlotte
1) Southern Miss; 2) Louisiana Tech; 3) UTEP; 4) Rice; 5) UTSA; 6) North Texas
USM over WKU

MACtion: Hard to drop NIU to 4th, but the west has 4 very strong teams and the east has none *shrug*
1) Bowling Green; 2) Ohio; 3) Akron; 4) Buffalo; 5) Kent State; 6) Miami
1) Western Michigan; 2) Toledo; 3) Central Michigan; 4) Northern Illinois; 5) Ball State; 6) Eastern Michigan
WMU handily over BGU

MW: I am really, really waiting on Craig Bohl's Wyoming team to come around, but they play in a tough division where 5th is optimistic. Three easiest conference games are on the road, and winning those still doesn't make them bowl-eligible. Air Force could conceivably end the season undefeated while Boise has a few OOC tests. Could SD State as well? The gap in that division should be huge. I'm definitely watching UNLV's progress as they look to make noise for the city of Las Vegas.
1) Air Force; 2) Boise State; 3) Colorado State; 4) Utah State; 5) Wyoming; 6) New Mexico
1) San Diego State; 2) Nevada; 3) UNLV; 4) San Jose State; 5) Fresno State; 6) Hawaii
Honestly, ehhhh, Air Force over SD State

Pac-12: I do not quite buy this UW hype myself - definitely looking for the Oregon reawakening. Time will tell, but Christian McCaffrey is enough to tell me it doesn't matter.
1) Stanford; 2) Oregon; 3) Washington; 4) Wazzu; 5) Cal; 6) Oregon State
1) USC; 2) UCLA; 3) Utah; 4) Arizona; 5) Arizona State; 6) Colorado
STANFORD over USC

SEC: I have zero belief in Tennessee and especially Dobbs - even those first two games may be tougher than they look on paper, but I do think they edge out UGA leading to a 6-2 first place team. The west remains quite impressive, and I think Arkansas could surprise (@TAMU is rough), but those top 3 are the obvious elite trio.
1) Tennessee; 1b) Georgia; 3) Florida; 4) Kentucky; 5) Mizzou; 6) Vanderbilt; 7) South Carolina
1) Alabama; 2) LSU; 3) Ole Miss; 4) Arkansas; 5) Texas A&M; 6) Auburn; 7) Mississippi State
BAMA over UT in style

Sun Belt: Could be a really, really special season - hoping both the top two go perfect with SEC upsets, but that's a bit of a stretch. App State would have to fight off GA Southern in Statesboro too! Looking for ULL to rise again and Idaho to give it one last hurrah at bowl eligibility.
1) Appalachian State; 1b) Arkansas State; 3) Georgia Southern; 4) ULL; 5) Georgia State; 6) Idaho; 7) Troy; New Mexico State; 9) South Alabama; 10) Texas State; 11) ULM

Independents: Notre Dame (8-4); BYU (7-5); UMass (5-7) [hoping for one more upset for them to shock everyone!]; Army (4-8)

Bama over Houston
Stanford over Clemson
BAMA repeat.

(Iowa held out over loss to FCS team.)
LSU, Ole Miss, USC, Ohio State among the other teams in NY6 bowls. Louisville and Air Force may get consideration too, but I won't say with confidence. MSU, TCU, Oregon and UNC also in the mix for the last spot. Doubt the other conference champs get high enough.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I'll do FCS much faster.

Big South: Chuck South
Big Sky: Portland State; At-Large: Montana, North Dakota, Northern Arizona, Southern Utah
CAA: James Madison; At-Large: Richmond, William & Mary, Towson, Villanova
MVFC: North Dakota State; At-Large: Northern Iowa, South Dakota State, Western Illinois
OVC: Jacksonville State; At-Large: Eastern Kentucky
Patriot: Colgate
SoCon: Chattanooga; At-Large: Samford
Southland: Sam Houston State; At-large: McNeese State
NEC: Bryant (pessimist, hopefully Duquesne can repeat)
Pioneer: Jacksonville

North Dakota State defeating Northern Iowa for the repeat!

First Four Out: Eastern Illinois, Illinois State, The Citadel, Eastern Washington
Next Four Out: Fordham, Stephen F. Austin, Youngstown State, New Hampshire

Ivy: Penn Quakers

MEAC: North Carolina A+T
SWAC: Alcorn State
NCAT beats Alcorn State

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

To be honest, Harry, I went into this year extraordinarily pessimistic about a lot of teams I like - save the title favorites. I do absolutely believe you will lose Arkansas and A&M in all honesty. Auburn was a bit tougher. I basically have them eeking it out leading to a tie at 2-6 in conference (with Auburn taking the 'tiebreaker'). I'd be very happy with a Bulldog win there and 3-5 as someone who often cheers for them. With your OOC, I think either result may come with a bowl birth while Auburn wouldn't have one under either situation. I do hope they come in 5th or 6th, but those smaller details weren't the first thing I was trying to iron out.

I'd definitely like to hear your picks, especially for the SEC - you have them 4th I presume?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Eh, Texas isn't gonna compete this year for sure, but I'd be pretty surprised if they ended up in 7th in the Big 12. They've improved a good bit and have a young class of new, good talent to work with this year.

I feel bad, I'm killing everybody's team, so far! I definitely think they've improved, but I also think West Virginia is improved and Tech is a big time sleeper, so I didn't have much choice. Yes, Baylor will be down, but will they be that down that they fall to 7th? Maybe? I just checked the Athlon 128, and they had Texas in 7th as well in a very tight 3-way race (in which I have TTU a tier up and Baylor down with them instead). 5-7 may as well be a tie.

Independents: Notre Dame (8-4); BYU (7-5); UMass (5-7) [hoping for one more upset for them to shock everyone!]; Army (4-8)

LOL

I know they're literally an untalented wasteland, but check that schedule! FIU and Tulane in Amherst give 'em the momentum, Wagner's a gimme, and they're certainly on the same level as a Troy or Hawaii. 3 should really be the over-under.
The Payne simulator (which I am not a huge fan of - previous season too highly weighted for lower teams) has 3-9 as the Boolean predicted (4-8 Probability-based). 2-point dogs vs. Hawaii, 3 point dogs vs. ODU, 9 point dogs vs. Troy. (And in my opinion, I totally flip those last two spreads for this year, but we'll see how the season goes.) I admit 5 is a bit aggressive, but it really could be between 2 and 6 with 4 most likely.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

SEC: I have zero belief in Tennessee and especially Dobbs - even those first two games may be tougher than they look on paper

Sun Belt: Could be a really, really special season - hoping both the top two go perfect with SEC upsets, but that's a bit of a stretch.
1) Appalachian State; 1b) Arkansas State

Knock on wood. I really wanted to say this with more confidence, but I was wary of the 21 point underdog. Shame on me for not saying my true feeling even if UT has a come from behind 4th quarter win. Hopefully they pull it out. Seriously, knock on all the wood you can find.


My only other observation would be that Indiana seems to be much more disappointing than I had suspected, but I haven't seen film yet as I'm traveling. But that's a good thing I'd like to be wrong about them ahead of Penn state

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I love when my favorite team makes me stay up until 4:40 AM. So long as it ends with a win. There is great reason for hope in Laramie! Wyoming can be rebuilt into an elite G5 program. I do believe. I have undying faith in Craig Bohl to do all it takes. Thus concludes 21 hours of football. If I have any, commentary to come tomorrow

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Next weeks schedule is disappointing after the great opening weekend that this was.  Not a single top-25 match up next week.

FCS will gladly take the spotlight with North Dakota State/Eastern Washington, Northern Iowa/Montana, and Western Illinois/Northern Arizona all being among the top 10 most interesting games next week on my list. Thank you MVFC/Big Sky for making actually interesting match-ups!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Lovie and the Illini are takin' down the 'Heels this Saturday.

Hmmm, I was considering betting that game if I win my Friday night ones, but in the other direction. UNC -335. I guess I'll find something a bit safer in that case because, you are right, that could be prime for an upset (though I was hoping James Madison would be the ones to send them home in tears!) Iowa -600, I presume you could get behind 😁

Something that may be getting overlooked this week is that there are a lot of road favorites. Not saying upsets will happen, but there is plenty of potential for something extraordinary.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Congratulations Florida State! To think I was actually considering taking the points on this one! What a mess! Guess I'll stick with Jacksonville State +31/37 vs. LSU

https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/51v8c0/according_to_a_charleston_southern_rb_potentially/


Take fake classes: A-OK
Buy school supplies: DEATH PENALTY! ALL PLAYERS SUSPENDED. COACHES BANNED.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Northwestern is now 0-2 against Western Michigan and Illinois State, lmao.  

In fairness, WMU is better than half of all P5 teams and Illinois State would probably rank better than nearly a quarter before factoring in that they have 22 fewer schollies. They should never have been favored in the first one, and the second one was a true toss-up.

As I said in my initial post:

Big Ten: Indiana the big surprise as many pick, Michigan and Northwestern big disappointments though, especially the latter from the get-go.

not too many average or better P5 teams challenge themselves to this extent. Kudos to Iowa for doing so as well, but the top of the FCS and G5 are just as legit as most above-average powers despite the media blackout.

At the moment, it would appear Michigan avoids a similar fate, but we shall see if they do indeed get past State.

(e: my predictions were by no means perfect of course. I will call myself out for Arkansas State optimism. That was way too early! Also, I may have been wildly off on Texas, but we still need to see conference play because there remains little separation in the conference.)

So, Nichols St is only down 10-7 at the half to Georgia, and the Nichols St. QB is 2-8 with 2 int.  The SEC is looking mighty sad outside of Bama.

Well, a pity as Georgia hung on.  If they had lost, I think the fans might have burned down the hedges.  Really a poorly played game by both teams which makes how close Nichols came even more amazing.

I have a feeling you understand this more than anyone here, but for context since it's clearly needed: Nicholls State is the embarrassment of the FCS multi-bid conferences. The butt of all joke for a decade-plus. Imagine what Kansas is, but significantly more laughable and at a lower level. Not fully funded. Probably should disband the program. And now recall what they did today. This is a new low in the history of football even though the upset didn't happen.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I was just scouring through the future schedules to see potential gameday locations and did I come across one worth rooting for.

The pre-Election Day battle - Air Force @ Army. I don't want to get too hyped too early - AFA would still have to go through a battle in Logan plus a somewhat tough one with Navy on their home turf (though Navy looked considerably weaker without Tago Smith and probably should have lost last week). You never want to assume anything with Army, but they have 3 road games - UTEP, Duke and Wake Forest - which all seem at least manageable. I would not assign the word likely to this possibility, but I know I will certainly be hoping for just that scenario every day. A battle of 8-0 service academies in 2016 would just blow my mind - even if the road to get there were rather weak. But two of those five games I call 'difficult' are this week. So start cheering now if you want to see a throwback.

Alabama @ LSU was the supposed plan, but if LSU gets surprised once more (Ole Miss? @UF? Southern Miss?), we'll just have to tell the college football gods something else came up.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I'm more excited about my NDSU over Iowa pick then Louisville because they had looked terrible in game prior to this.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that among our teams only Sandander's team won today...there is no justice in the world.

Glad my school is considered chopped liver!

Anyway, Maryland had a rather depressing OT win, and we have Stanford fans, and Cal still has a longshot. Plus Western Michigan may be closing in the top 25 for Wolverine. We have fans for all those among us at the very least.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

10 more eliminated from playoff contention this week to bring us to exactly half of FBS out of the playoff picture. (ESPN has previously eliminated Cal and Miss St too, but I mean...if they win out, who knows?) Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss are on life support in addition to that pair. 64 remain, but many are barely breathing.

Next week's slate will bring us:

Cal @ Arizona State (52%) (possible elimination game for Cal)
Air Force @ Utah State (54%) (elimination game for AFA)
Arkansas (55%) vs. Texas A&M
West Virginia (56%) @ BYU
Syracuse @ Connecticut (57%)
Central Michigan (58%) @ Virginia (elimination game for CMU)
USC @ Utah (58%) (elimination game for USC)
Louisiana Tech (59%) @ MTSU
Nebraska (59%) @ Northwestern
LSU (59%) @ Auburn (elimination game for Auburn)
Florida State (60%) @ USF (elimination game for USF)
Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan (62%) (elimination game for both)
Western Illinois @ Northern Illinois (63%)
South Carolina (65%) @ Kentucky (elimination game for SC)
Wake Forest @ Indiana (65%)
Pitt @ UNC (68%) (elimination game for both)
Wisconsin @ Michigan State (68%)
Florida @ Tennessee (69%)
East Carolina @ Virignia Tech (70%) (elimination game for VT)
Washington (70%) @ Arizona (elimination game for Arizona)
Boise St (72%) @ Oregon St (elimination game for Boise)
Oklahoma St @ Baylor (74%) (elimination game for Oklahoma St)
Stanford (74%) @ UCLA (elimination game for UCLA)
Iowa (75%) @ Rutgers (elimination game for both)
Army (76%) @ Buffalo (elimination game for Army)
Clemson (77%) @ Georgia Tech
Georgia @ Ole Miss (78%) (elimination game for Ole Miss)

Penn State is projected to be eliminated
Notre Dame, Minnesota, TCU, Mississippi State and Kansas State are projected to safely survive another week.


Pretty terrible FCS slate features Samford @Chattanooga, Montana @Cal Poly, Eastern Washington @Northern Arizona, Colgate @Richmond, UND @Montana St, James Madison @Maine, Penn @Fordham, Portland State @Southern Utah, and Princeton @Lehigh. Maybe Albany @St. Francis. That's it for competitive top 50ish matches.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

How is USC not already eliminated? I mean conceivably they could meet with Stanford and beat them in the Pac-12 championship game, but why would the committee take on a two-loss USC team over a one-loss Big 12 or Houston (or even a one loss Clemson/Louisville/Florida St.)?

I mean, Houston could easily have 2 losses themselves and who knows what the Big 12 champion will have. A loss to the SEC Champion (#1) and a split with the runner-up of their own conference, and I mean...I'm just very cautious when eliminating. Unlike ESPN who wants to add teams back later on after elimination. It's called that for a reason. 0% means zilch.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Over/under on Orgeron straightening out LSU, beating Bama, and still not getting hired for the HC job?

Lol! I'll never forget how despicable USC was for not retaining him, and I hope they continue paying the price for it. The difference here is that he is the hometown kid this time around, so I really hope the attachment takes hold. He's more than earned it over his career.

Extremely sad to see Les go though. Should've taken the Michigan job when he had the chance. I definitely prefer him to Harbaugh.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I can't recall a time when there was so much of a talent disparity within G5 conferences. It's rather brutal. By number of teams ranked in the Massey top 128:

MAC: 7 out of 12
Mountain West: 7 out of 12 (with San Jose State in danger of falling out)
Sun Belt: 6 out of 12 (with 3 pretty close!)
Conference-USA: 5 out of 13 (with no one else remotely close and four ranked below 200 -- for clarity, 16 D2 schools are top 200 in addition to Mount Union, and that can be tough to measure)

As I stated in IRC, I am absolutely rooting for Air Force, Toledo and Western Michigan this week who all play their toughest remaining game until the final week -- we could legitimately see a bunch of 11-0 teams who play nobody because the talent disparity within their conferences is just that egregious. Final week would set up for Toledo vs. Western Michigan and Air Force vs. Boise State, winner gets San Diego State. Sounds like a dream!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Incredible to see Western Michigan's monumental blowout win shoot them up the computer rankings (Massey 22/Sagarin 24)! Coupled with San Diego State's loss, this team could become this season's G5 darling (Houston already has a larger than life feel) - They'll need big wins to ascend further though. Let's hope Fleck makes his team prove it with utter dominance of the lower rungs of the MAC. The AP needs to start respecting both WMU and NDSU. The former should make an appearance next week, but I want more than just 'an appearance'

As for Wyoming (up to 107/106), great to see them get the huge win in the rivalry game last week just as the season appeared to be over. There is a tiny path towards 6-6 open involving three winnable road games (New Mexico, UNLV and UNR iirc). The loss to Eastern Michigan will sting even more if they fail in just one...Craig Bohl finally has a QB and a better than average kicker, but road games will be tough no matter who you are, even with the bottoming out MW. We just need to get the bowl invite to see that progress continue.

OTOH, Villanova continues to shock me, and I do not know how this offense has become this organized with the loss of so many key receivers in an already dismal year. The story is really coming together for Andy Talley to go out on top, and the huge win brings them up to 112/110 (effectively 15th in FCS and virtually tied with James Madison as CAA frontrunners. Albany, Richmond and JMU games will determine if this season is a mere playoff birth or a real championship (not to take Maine/Delaware for granted as they have talent, but the level at which we are performing is substantially greater at the moment). I'm starting to really believe this team can play itself into the 70-80 range which would place us in the montage of 5-7 teams with legitimate hope of displacing NDSU (#31/48). The season is already a roaring success. Homecoming will be electric. Quite a shame that A&M/Alabama is that week because otherwise this would be 1 of 2 contenders for GameDay (Stanford hosts Colorado).

Regarding my Saban fandom, I've lost quite a bit of belief that he has the best team in the nation after last night. This scares me all the more because of who the playoff teams other than Bama might be.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Today marks the beginning of FCS eliminations (well, we got rid of Furman last week). Starting with 100 teams seeking 24 playoff spots (plus 1 for the Celebration Bowl), we are officially down to 91. 21 will look to fight off elimination next week (and each following week), including 7 which were considered preseason contenders (5 ranked!) - Illinois State even with a win against a top 50-60 FBS team, no less.

More to come tomorrow.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The new AP Poll is out, and we have seven SEC teams in the top 25, despite the absolute snubbing of LSU and Georgia:

1. Alabama
6. Texas A&M
9. Tennessee
12. Ole Miss
18. Florida
22. Arkansas
23. Auburn

Since the end of the 2013 season, every SEC team except Kentucky has appeared in the Top 25 at some point!  Of course, we have a showdown between Alabama and Tennessee this weekend in Knoxville and Alabama and Texas A&M next weekend in Tuscaloosa.

Georgia was not snubbed. Not even close. That's a very bad team that Western Michigan and Navy would absolutely demolish. It's quite shameful that the AP gave them as many votes as they did. I do have LSU in my ballot...just barely (UF barely too)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Every year with the dream-crushing QB injuries. I guess we'll still make the playoffs, but not looking forward to a one-and-done. 3 years in a row now.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If and only if Alabama is the loser of that game, it would hypothetically be possible if and only if Wazzu won the Pac-12 and Baylor/WV both lose a game/don't win Big 12 and even then, Michigan is a serious threat for preference with a name brand loss. Louisville lost to a flawed Clemson team and is not a brand name so I guess Bama has preference there, but that's a lot of if'so.

Just root for Alabama, the team that can actually win. A&M is not a serious team. I still consider Arkansas and Ole Miss better. Arkansas has grown a lot since game 1. Auburn is a severely one dimensional team that I don't take seriously except perhaps as a big upset potential in a rivalry game (bigger than today). LSU, you are judging off of a slow starting big win against Southern Miss? Even more one dimensional than Auburn but perhaps (?) slightly better.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

In B4 smilio brings weird Wyoming tears of joy.

lol, A joyous day indeed! Major freakout did happen. In addition to my favorites, we have the local Temple and gorgeous beautiful Wisconsin take major steps towards division titles. Amazing! Also, talk of Western Michigan as the G5 rep will really heat up with #MACtion on Tuesday night (right along with the first rankings)! Ain't it just like a dream.

I don't think either Temple or WYO will be considered for a rank, but they are probably both right in the 31-35 range. Just got to keep winning and one may sneak in later on.

If only Clemson got knocked off, but with the tiebreakers not in their favor, maybe we can save that one loss for the ACC Championship game


Big game next week will be for Penn who makes a tough trip to Princeton...need that win to turn November the 11th into a de facto Ivy League Championship game!! Really always dreamed of going to that!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

The first College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and we have 5 SEC teams in the top 13, including two of the four who are in for now.  If Alabama and A&M win out, I feel good about getting two teams in.  I will be down in Auburn this weekend, which should be a really fun atmosphere.

How many times does this have to be explained? Washington should almost breeze through the next 3. They would be exposed so badly if they were let in - might as well give Alabama a bye.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I had a really good feeling Nick Fitzgerald was starting to come into his own! Decision-making and accuracy still have a long way to go, but he's gonna be a good one. The committee should be ashamed that they were unable to see what most passerby fans could tell. Not a good team. Healthy Trevor Knight or not.