538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 85582 times)
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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Posts: 14,803
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Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« on: July 21, 2016, 10:28:20 AM »
Polls plus is a proven failure. I'll take the bettors consensus over that at this point, and I find them to be really irrational and uninformed/out of touch generally
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2016, 11:23:01 AM »
People don't seem to understand that Trump has no turnout game, which as a Republican means almost no chance. Look for an Iowa Caucus repeat.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2016, 12:52:33 PM »
Quote from: Sorenroy on July 22, 2016, 12:48:51 PM
For the first time in forever, Trump has passed 40% in 538's polls-plus model.

Projected as the favorite in both Ohio and Florida. That doesn't make any sense.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2016, 08:17:22 AM »
Quote from: Ebsy on July 22, 2016, 01:08:18 PM
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 22, 2016, 12:52:33 PM
Quote from: Sorenroy on July 22, 2016, 12:48:51 PM
For the first time in forever, Trump has passed 40% in 538's polls-plus model.

Projected as the favorite in both Ohio and Florida. That doesn't make any sense.
The model doesn't make any sense this far out.

Trump now projected as the favorite in Nevada!!! They're adjusting all polling in the wrong direction!
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2016, 11:13:08 AM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 02, 2016, 11:25:36 AM
Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2016, 12:07:35 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 03, 2016, 11:29:43 AM
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 03, 2016, 11:13:08 AM
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 02, 2016, 11:25:36 AM
Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

You need to get more realistic. A large portion of this country despises Trump. Minds are made up. GOP not winning PA, WI, (or NH! Wink)
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2016, 12:17:32 AM »
Quote from: LittleBigOctopus on September 03, 2016, 06:03:35 PM
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 03, 2016, 12:07:35 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 03, 2016, 11:29:43 AM
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 03, 2016, 11:13:08 AM
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 02, 2016, 11:25:36 AM
Clinton's now below 70 in polls-plus.  The surge is real!

Nate Silver doesn't have a clue. There is no path, let alone a single one that gives a 30% chance.

Come on now...

You need to get more realistic. A large portion of this country despises Trump. Minds are made up. GOP not winning PA, WI, (or NH! Wink)
Wake up! According to the latest polls they are pretty much equally ~hated. Muahaha Smiley

Wake up, the vast majority of this country considers Clinton "qualified" and only about a third say that about Trump.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2016, 10:42:23 AM »
Absolutely astounding that fraudster Nate Silver is making Donald Trump not the biggest conman in this election.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2016, 11:04:48 AM »
Quote from: Left on September 06, 2016, 10:43:19 AM
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 06, 2016, 10:42:23 AM
Absolutely astounding that fraudster Nate Silver is making Donald Trump not the biggest conman in this election.

So are you still supporting Trump or not?

I wouldn't dream of stopping now. It's time for a New New Deal in the White House, and only one candidate is willing to give it to us.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2016, 08:21:25 AM »
TRUMP IS THE FRONTRUNNER
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2016, 08:36:08 AM »
So honored to have the highly educated behind us now in Colorado! A very fit people too. America may actually be the greatest country on earth. Wow! Not even in my wildest dreams has a win happened yet.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74
« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2016, 08:52:15 AM »
Quote from: Clinton1996 on September 26, 2016, 08:43:27 AM
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on September 26, 2016, 08:36:08 AM
So honored to have the highly educated behind us now in Colorado! A very fit people too. America may actually be the greatest country on earth. Wow! Not even in my wildest dreams has a win happened yet.
What even are you?

An urbane hipster who wants to make America so great, maybe even greater than ever before
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