Can Trump swing Pennsylvania in the general election?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Yes, the Wharton School of Finance is located there. They'll love Trump. All of Philadelphia does. So much love in this city (no homo, it's brotherly)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

People think Trump's only support is rural working class people, but that is not true in the northeast. In the northeast, he has incredible suburban appeal. I don't know why people fail to grasp that his home suburbs behave incredibly differently than other suburbs across the country. It's a pretty common phenomenon.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

People think Trump's only support is rural working class people, but that is not true in the northeast. In the northeast, he has incredible suburban appeal. I don't know why people fail to grasp that his home suburbs behave incredibly differently than other suburbs across the country. It's a pretty common phenomenon.

Nope.

Look at the Trump primary support map: he's killing it in SE PA and Long Island for example. Stronger in central Jersey than anywhere down in S. Jersey.

And then compare to Chicago where he is at zero. There is a home effect. Whether you believe it translates to the GE or not is up to some interpretation, but Trump won't be losing these voters like he might in other places. It will be more interesting if he can add others from these areas into the mix. I won't make any calls now because I view him as the GE underdog, but you can't discount the possibility.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

People think Trump's only support is rural working class people, but that is not true in the northeast. In the northeast, he has incredible suburban appeal. I don't know why people fail to grasp that his home suburbs behave incredibly differently than other suburbs across the country. It's a pretty common phenomenon.

Nope.

Look at the Trump primary support map: he's killing it in SE PA and Long Island for example. Stronger in central Jersey than anywhere down in S. Jersey.

And then compare to Chicago where he is at zero. There is a home effect. Whether you believe it translates to the GE or not is up to some interpretation, but Trump won't be losing these voters like he might in other places. It will be more interesting if he can add others from these areas into the mix. I won't make any calls now because I view him as the GE underdog, but you can't discount the possibility.

He has suburban appeal in the GOP primaries, but the number of GOP primary and general election voters is completely dwarfed by Democratic voters.

Romney had strong suburban support in New Hampshire, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and Illinois during the primaries; fat load of good that did for him in November of 2012.

The difference seems to be that Trump more unique form of appeal in that he's drawing more people into the GOP primary as opposed to same old, same old. But we'll see. At this point, it's hard to argue more than from the perspective of a deeply held intuition of what I see.

Reminder: the little polling we do have from PPP had Trump up 2 with more 14% of Romney voters undecided as opposed to 9% of Obama voters. And he pulled a ton of Obama voters as it was (10%). I guess I'm in that group.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Ljube: here are the racial crosstabs of the PPP poll that had Trump leading -

Clinton-TRUMP-Unsure
Base 43-45-13
White 38-50-12
Black 72-10-18
Other 52-40-8

I truly believe he has strong appeal in Bucks and Delaware which you can debate (at worst, stronger than Romney), and he will outperform significantly in Philadelphia. 13-15% of blacks is far from out of the question, and with the Street's campaigning for him, who knows? He just needs to make it the focus of his campaign, which I expect him to do since he accepted an invitation to speak here.

To be perfectly transparent - Christie got 14% of blacks and Carson got 12%, but that's all irrelevant now. Rubio got 10% vs. Sanders, and Trump got 20% against Sanders.

Romney got only 6% according to exit polls.