I increasingly believe that the problem is that too many people are going to college.
I agree, and I think this is part of the larger problem of so many institutions existing that really should not be operating in the first place which Averroes described in the comment in question. I'm not sure that's the solution he was going for (perhaps it was a proposal of free college?), but it's quite clear that many schools aren't doing their job. If you go to a legitimate school, you should be fine so long as you are not woefully underprepared, are willing to work (i.e., go to class), and also importantly, able to learn any degree of social skills. We may worry along the way, but if you put yourself out there with that line of accomplishments, you'll do well enough.
Only because more people are not hiring unless you have a Bachelor's
Bachelor's is the new High School, Masters is the new Bachelors, PHD is the new Masters
The cliche (particularly its extension) always seemed a bit dishonest to me, and I'm not exactly sure why. Is it just something old people like to say to think of the good old days? The portion of US adults with a Bachelor's has remained quite steady for decades - a very mild increase over a couple generations - according to one survey I had seen (compared to many European countries that had been rising, and in fact Norway and the UK had passed us by a significant margin). I would think that my family experience would lead me to your conclusion, but I just don't see it outside of some recall bias trick where those examples come to mind. I'm almost sure in due time the same examples will rise for my own generation.
Is the problem more that some of the jobs requiring only high school have disappeared and not been replaced with anything better? Manufacturing to some degree?