Seems like effectively no change since I offered up the
gay marriage in the RCC question in October. :/
At first glance, it looks like people are somewhat hopeful, but I guess that's because of the moderate option included.
I'm still a likely foolish and idealistic YES vote because I want to believe my religion is very accepting.
I could see a case for Option 4, but I want to believe there is some sort of merging rather than further dilution due to fringe issues. Perhaps, they're not "fringe issues" to all (including myself), but just because the Church teaches something doesn't mean it gets followed (like contraception for 95+% of Americans). This is obviously different from contraception because of the visibility of it, but I don't know if it requires a split amongst Catholics. Some could surely just convert to Episcopalianism if they felt the need to resort to that - tradition and some minutia that one doesn't have to publicly acknowledge if they still like the Catholic viewpoint notwithstanding. I'm not sure there would be enough actively religious straight allies to join them in splitting off to form a strong alternative that believes in Catholic doctrine outside of LGBT issues as much as I'd like to see something like that. People will have to compromise on something and for most it will be what affects their life most - whether it be continuing tradition with ties to the Vatican (basically all straights and then some) or marrying outside the RCC if they found someone and are ready to do so.