PA-2016: Sestak files candidacy for rematch (user search)
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  PA-2016: Sestak files candidacy for rematch (search mode)
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Author Topic: PA-2016: Sestak files candidacy for rematch  (Read 6498 times)
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« on: April 06, 2015, 07:28:59 PM »

I'm not an expert on thread creation - Is it OK to give it a bump and just turn it into an all things PA-SEN thread? I don't see another one.

Anyway, it looks like Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski (D) is going to jump into the race. That's a pretty significant name who may have an electoral advantage in the general against Toomey because he can neutralize the Lehigh County (and perhaps Northampton County as it's in the same metro area) advantage that Toomey starts out with despite its traditionally Democratic leanings. In a Presidential year, you probably don't have to worry as much about a drop off in Philly area turnout due to the loss of Sestak unless it's a brutal primary, and even then it is slim. Maybe 2% lower vote total in Delaware County - just a guess of what Sestak's hometown advantage would bring judging by 2010, adjusting for inferior gubernatorial candidate. .5-1% in Montgomery and Bucks Counties at most and Philly is decimal points lower than it could be with Sestak. The Democrats could really do well by branching out to the other major strongholds and take Philly as a foregone conclusion.

Pawlowski's fundraising efforts in 2014 for governor were pretty terrible, but it looks like he's making a better effort to secure donors this time around so that he is taken as a serious opponent. Still, even if he managed to surprise us with his fundraising, the Toomey money machine will be tough to stop - a Democratic primary will only drain the opposition's war chest regardless of which candidate comes out of it.
Pawlowski should be a more serious primary opponent than Carney, who is really just old news (or Hughes/Shapiro who both do next to nothing to improve the Dem's chances).

http://www.mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/mc-pa-senate-ed-pawlowski-pat-toomey-20150404-story.html#page=1
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2015, 08:18:43 PM »
« Edited: April 06, 2015, 08:37:51 PM by SMilo »

Best Dems can do?  What has Sestak done for 6 years?

Fundraise! Smiley  Money is going to be critical. This has been the plan all along.


And sawx - yeah probably not in all likelihood, but it's fun to think about. It's the most legitimate we are going to get.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2015, 06:31:01 PM »

Politics PA did a website poll recently where he led among their readers, but didn't we learn a lot about that from 1936! (The poll on the side of the screen right now shows their readers also believe Sestak would lose head-to-head vs. Pawlowski.)

Scranton-Times Tribune hasn't done a poll, but one writer claims he's almost definitely in.

All the interested candidates are from areas right next to the eastern border of the state unsurprisingly.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
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*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2015, 07:22:00 PM »

Shapiro honestly doesn't seem that interested in the position because it's an uphill battle but Sestak was very moderate and Carney will be to his right. The Philly Dems are only semi-serious candidates. If they want someone sufficiently liberal, Shapiro may be the way to go. I can imagine it being easier for him to fundraise (compared to Pawlowski) since he's from MontCo in just as big an executive role.

I'm not sure why the Establishment would be that upset of someone like Specter who joined the party just to win. He turned into a joke. If Crist couldn't beat Rick Scott, I don't know how Specter would have pulled it out, even as an incumbent. He upset everyone and Sestak had wide appeal.

Very true on your second post though, lol.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,803
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2015, 07:37:51 PM »

Shapiro honestly doesn't seem that interested in the position because it's an uphill battle but Sestak was very moderate and Carney will be to his right. The Philly Dems are only semi-serious candidates. If they want someone sufficiently liberal, Shapiro may be the way to go. I can imagine it being easier for him to fundraise (compared to Pawlowski) since he's from MontCo in just as big an executive role.

I'm not sure why the Establishment would be that upset of someone like Specter who joined the party just to win. He turned into a joke. If Crist couldn't beat Rick Scott, I don't know how Specter would have pulled it out, even as an incumbent. He upset everyone and Sestak had wide appeal.

Very true on your second post though, lol.

Specter joined the democratic party because he was the biggest RINO in the Senate and was publicly asked to switch by Biden and other prominent democrats. Given the political climate of 2010, he almost certainly would have beaten Sestak in a GE.

He joined the Democratic Party because he had no chance of surviving a primary challenge against Toomey (again I will cite Charlie Crist among many others). Being a RINO doesn't make one a Democrat. It often makes them a DINO if they switch. You of all people should understand that.

He would have beaten Sestak as a Republican, but he didn't have a chance to be that Republican.
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