Not bad, though not that great either, I guess? Weren't early polls in Kentucky always more Democratic-leaning?
Tossup remains tossup.
Generally, yes. IMO the consensus here is way too high on Beshear. I'm not saying he can't win, but I don't expect him to win easily.
We tend to put a lot of weight on some pretty old history, and while I get that the "old school Dem" approach can still work occasionally in the Clinton-McCain-Trump states, I've always thought Beshear could also fit in the "only won because his opponent was a crazy person and/or corrupt" category. In general, these people struggle to hold on for reelection against a Generic R/D unless their initial margin of victory was very large, and Beshear only won by ~5K votes.
It's also possible some people are anticipating a Bradley effect, but the fact that Cameron already won statewide and in a landslide (and against a long-serving white Appalachian Dem) makes that implausible IMO.
I think the big takeaway of people like Laura Kelly, John Bel Edwards, and Roy Cooper holding on in tough states against well-funded credible challengers is that it’s seldom a good bet to guess an incumbent Governor will lose if their approval rating is above water. I think the last Governor that lost despite an approval above water was Bob Ehrlich.
