If polling now holds then Biden will be favored. He gets at least 50% of the vote, I predict, unless there's a huge third party candidate that appeals to liberals and leftwingers (this will not be RFK Jr.).
Again, Biden is basically tied in current polling.
With Florida becoming a Republican mega state and NY and CA showing signs of Biden 2020 being the Dem peak, I don’t think its out of the question that scenario could happen in a future close election. Georgia and Arizona look to be on their way to voting to the left of the country before long.
The more conservative retirees that move to Florida from swing states in the rust belt, the likelier it becomes. Florida has basically marketed itself for this to happen.
