AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1539432536086138881?s=21&t=LX3ctVEeIyO...
I think Palin is now heavily favored because of this. While I expect many Democrats will rank Begich second, I don’t think they will think to (or want to) rank Begich first.

As for Wasserman’s point, why would Democrats vote for Begich as a lesser of two evils when they have a small but real chance of beating Palin in a 1-on-1?

[Spectator]

What are the odds Pelota wins? According to my math, she’d need 40% of Begich’s votes. Probably won’t happen.

Republicans usually get 54-55% in Alaskan elections. Between Palin and Begich they have 60% right now. That leads me to believe Pelota will steal another 5%. Maybe 10% since it’s Palin. But that’s stretching it. Probably still not enough

The bet is that a lot of Begich voters didn’t rank a second at all.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/IvanMoore1/status/1562761035399852036?s=20&t=NMYQmYuZ6xv...

This is just not believable at all. Palin is expected to get somewhere in the vicinity of 2/3 of Begich’s voters, which while not great is still much better than she gets statewide.

I’d rather be Peltola at this point though. I’m expecting a Peltola win of 1 or 2 points.

[Spectator]

Preliminary map of the approximate final results by state house district-

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1565147758595477504

I’m shocked Peltola only won Anchorage by 6%. I thought it would’ve been by more, given Biden won Anchorage.

[Spectator]

Preliminary map of the approximate final results by state house district-

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1565147758595477504

I’m shocked Peltola only won Anchorage by 6%. I thought it would’ve been by more, given Biden won Anchorage.

The districts in the Anchorage insert take in parts of other boroughs tbf, so it is not a one-to-one comparison.

Edit: The districts in question were won by Trump 52-44, so its swing is in line with the state.

That makes a lot more sense then. She had to have won Anchorage proper by double digits then, since the blood red districts in the MatSu valley are propping up Palin’s 47% in the metro.

[Spectator]

Preliminary map of the approximate final results by state house district-

https://twitter.com/politicsmaps/status/1565147758595477504

Looks like an above average performance for Peltola in Yup'ik areas; would be interested in precinct results to see if it's a district thing or not.

I think the swing is universal everywhere except Fairbanks. Peltola’s old House district really stands out.