ME-02: Bathroom Bruce is IN

[Spectator]

Golden is done.

Yeah, he needs Democrats in the legislature to draw him a district that went for Trump by 3% or less for me to like his chances in this midterm.

[Spectator]

I’ll take Poliquin any day if the alternative is someone like Dale Crafts or some wild card who looks good on paper but ends up crumbling under pressure and barely makes a compelling case for firing the (skilled) incumbent. There might be more appealing candidates in theory, but the main reason Poliquin lost in 2018 was the turnout imbalance, and that’s not going to be replicated in 2022.

While true, I think Golden is stronger now than in 2018, at least in terms of proving his willingness to break with the party.

[Spectator]

Aug. 31 - Sept. 7 poll that has support for a LePage GOV run at +2 and Janet Mills's (D) approval statewide at 48/49 also finds Golden with a 48/33 (+15) approval in ME-02.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/me/maine/news/2021/09/14/2022-maine-governor-s-race-shaping-up-to-be--heavyweight-fight-

Looks like the NRCC ads that attacked Golden over his inaction on the caterpillar infestation really payed dividends.

I have long thought that if any Democrat wins in 2022 in a Trump district, it will be Golden. I’m expecting IL-17 to be redrawn as a Biden seat.

[Spectator]

Aug. 31 - Sept. 7 poll that has support for a LePage GOV run at +2 and Janet Mills's (D) approval statewide at 48/49 also finds Golden with a 48/33 (+15) approval in ME-02.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/me/maine/news/2021/09/14/2022-maine-governor-s-race-shaping-up-to-be--heavyweight-fight-

Looks like the NRCC ads that attacked Golden over his inaction on the caterpillar infestation really payed dividends.

I have long thought that if any Democrat wins in 2022 in a Trump district, it will be Golden. I’m expecting IL-17 to be redrawn as a Biden seat.

The idea that “candidate quality” will outrun partisanship to this extent is hilarious, the likeliest Dem to win would be one in a marginal Trump seat and/or one trending Dem, ME-02 is neither of those.

The demographics are terrible here, but if we’re going by “trends,” then ME-02 actually trended  blue in 2020. It also would be far from out of character for gullible New Englanders to fall for someone’s fake moderate act.

Even in 2010 and 2014, Democrats won areas that were tougher than R+6. I don’t think he’ll win, but i think it’s more likely he does than Slotkin, Axne, Cartwright, or Pfaff in WI-03.