2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1442507576512552968
Direct DRA link

Thanks for the link man

There are some very interesting things in this map, such as them going all-in on the RGV.
Looks like Texas Republicans have decided (in terms of trends) that they're gonna go all or nothing.

Also, the Austin-San Antonio link is very interesting, no doubt used to prevent a third D seat from popping up in the Austin metro. Another smart move is that they connected one of the soft R seats surrounding the link with the RGV. Once again, all or nothing it looks like.

Houston, while being a gerrymander looks OK, trend-resistant, and isn't all that bad.

DFW is surprising. One of the most D-Trending areas of the country, a metropolis larger and bluer than Houston, and they think they can manage three D seats only? Four seats would've been safer. When considering the tremendous population growth in the counties of Denton, Collin, Tarrant, and Rockwall, the population loss in the uber-Republican rural areas, and the rate at which the suburbs are diversifying and trending away from the Republicans, it seems a realistic possibility that we witness this backfire spectacularly by the end of the decade. TX-3, TX-12, TX-24, and TX-26 all look particularly vulnerable.

Here are the comparisons with previous years for the four districts in question:

TX-3 (Collin County)

2014 Governor: R+41.0 (29.5% D, 70.5% R)
2016 Presidential: R+26.7 (33.6% D, 60.3% R)
2018 Senate: R+16.0 (41.8% D, 57.8% R)
2020 Presidential: R+15.0 (41.6% D, 6.6% R)

TX-12 (West Tarrant County + Parker County)

2014 Governor: R+28.6 (35.7% D, 64.3% R)
2016 Presidential: R+25.2 (34.8% D, 60.0% R)
2018 Senate: R+16.1 (41.5% D, 57.6% R)
2020 Presidential: R+17.9 (40.2% D, 58.1% R)

TX-24 (North Tarrant County + North Dallas County)

2014 Governor: R+38.2 (30.9% D, 69.1% R)
2016 Presidential: R+23.9 (35.4% D, 59.3% R)
2018 Senate: R+14.5 (42.3% D, 56.8% R)
2020 Presidential: R+12.2 (43.1% D, 55.3% R)

TX-26 (Denton County)

2014 Governor: R+43.8 (28.1% D, 71.9% R)
2016 Presidential: R+30.8 (32.0% D, 62.8% R)
2018 Senate: R+20.2 (39.5% D, 59.7% R)
2020 Presidential: R+18.7 (39.9% D, 58.6% R)

Perhaps this quasi-dummymander is worth it as the trends may not come into play for many more years, but when they do, they'll hit hard as much of it is demographic change. It's just a matter of when.


Finally, the lack of population deviation in the map is admirable.

It’s really telling that Biden did better than O’Roruke in most of these seats despite losing by more statewide. TX-24 and TX-03 will flip by the end of the decade, I don’t think there’s any doubt in my mind of that.

[Spectator]

Just did my attempt at a fair 40-seat 2030 redraw. 40 seats is likely too conservative given Texas's explosive growth. If Democrats win the State House or the Governorship (or both) in 2030, this map just shows how screwed Republicans would be in the redistricting cycle. This map below is based on 2020 Trump-Biden numbers. I made R-favorable decisions in the DFW area and a few D-favorable splits in Harris County. I expect Williamson County will be big enough to contain its own congressional district pretty easily by 2030, so the map may be even more D favorable by then. My Denton County seat will likely go blue presidentially anyway by 2030, as will my Tarrant County seat.

VRA-compliant on all fronts, including black seats in south Dallas and central Harris County. >55% Hispanic in the weirdly shaped Dallas, Tarrant and Harris seats.

I think the only optimistic rooms for growth for the TX GOP in this map would be the South Texas seats, but even those are all Biden +12 or greater. I was surprised at how cleanly redrawing those seats results in all of them getting bluer.

My takeways are that almost any fair map would result in:
-a D seat in Fort Bend County
-2 solidly blue seats entirely within Bexar County
-at least 2 solidly blue Austin metro seats with a third swing (blue-trending) seat
-at least 1 blue Collin County seat (especially by the end of the decade)
-at least 1 additional blue seat out of Dallas/Tarrant counties, possibly 2 or 3 by end of decade.

All of this is possible in the 21 Biden - 19 Trump seat map because there's just so many wasted GOP votes in areas that are >70% Trump, all throughout rural west and east Texas. 7 seats total are >70% Trump. Meanwhile only 3 seats are >70% Biden (one in Dallas, Harris and Travis counties each). A fourth seat in Bexar County comes really close though at 69% Biden.