Still of the belief that Abrams will finish 1-3 points behind Warnock in final margin. All the polls showing him doing 6-10 points better than her earlier this year were ridiculous. Nevertheless, there has been a consistent pattern in favor of incumbency in GA this cycle (Kemp and Warnock). With that being said...
Abrams should hope that Warnock wins by at least 2 points and clears runoff territory - because if GA suddenly has to have two consecutive runoffs (remember that state runoffs are in December, and federal runoffs are in January), the concept of voter confusion and fatigue comes into play. Furthermore, I'm betting that if Warnock wins by less than 2 points - runoff or no - Kemp scores a narrow majority in November just like he did in 2018. If Warnock can win by 3-4 points, then there's a decent chance the electorate is favorable enough to drag Abrams across the 50% threshold barely (or perhaps force an exclusive state-level runoff where she comes in first in November by a small margin).
Agreed, I always thought the idea of the Senate and Governors races having as wide a gulf between them as polls have indicated is not what’s likely at all to happen in the end. I do think Warnock will do a bit better than Abrams, but only in the realm of 1-3 points like you suggested. There simply aren’t many people in Georgia that are willing to split their votes. The biggest gap we got in 2018 for example was only about 5 points of a gulf between the SOS margin and the Agriculture Commish race.
