I largely agree with the caveat that it is 6 years out and I think some of the house seats have to be dem sinks .
Tennessee and Utah really have to have d+1
Idaho doesn't (a boise based seat needs to take in to many rurals) 4 seat Idaho which may happen in 205 or even 40 if trends continue would need a Dem seat
The biggest problems for Dems is most of the places losing seats are guaranteed dem seats. RI can only eliminate a Dem, Illinois is already pretty much a max gerrymander. So that is probably -3 Dems
California has limited to eliminate and same parts the Bay area will have to bear some of the loss and there are no GOP seats there. Of the 4 losses, 3 are probably Dems
In New York Dems could probably eliminate 2 GOP seats, but will have to lose at least one of their own.
Illinois did have a proposed map in 2020 with only two GOP sinks iirc, so that may be possible.
Think New York can eliminate three GOP seats easily enough. One of the Long Island seats, the 24th, and merge 10/11 into a Dem-leaning district.
