The WOW Counties doesn't have much power as people think (user search)
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May 23, 2024, 05:09:31 AM
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  The WOW Counties doesn't have much power as people think (search mode)
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Author Topic: The WOW Counties doesn't have much power as people think  (Read 1104 times)
David Hume
davidhume
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« on: May 08, 2024, 11:19:20 AM »

Democrats actually do really good in rural Wisconsin for the most part, except a few areas like Clark and Taylor counties and that whole area north of Green Bay.   It's how they keep the GOP margins down in the other areas and run up the score in Dane and Milwaukee that keeps them competitive in the state.

If rural Wisconsin voted like rural Missouri or rural Indiana they probably wouldn't be able to win much of anything. 

There's no county in all of Wisconsin that gave Trump 80% of the vote, and I think only 3 that gave him over 70%.   Meanwhile in places like Missouri and Indiana those kind of counties are everywhere. 

Dane/Milwaukee is a smaller chunk of the state than KC/St Louis is in MO but MO Dems can't win the state no matter how much they run up the score in KC/St Louis.
In fact, D did better in rural WI than any other midwestern state. Had Rural WI voted like MI or MN, WI would be like OH.
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David Hume
davidhume
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,660
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: 1.22

P P
« Reply #1 on: May 08, 2024, 11:54:18 AM »

Democrats actually do really good in rural Wisconsin for the most part, except a few areas like Clark and Taylor counties and that whole area north of Green Bay.   It's how they keep the GOP margins down in the other areas and run up the score in Dane and Milwaukee that keeps them competitive in the state.

If rural Wisconsin voted like rural Missouri or rural Indiana they probably wouldn't be able to win much of anything. 

There's no county in all of Wisconsin that gave Trump 80% of the vote, and I think only 3 that gave him over 70%.   Meanwhile in places like Missouri and Indiana those kind of counties are everywhere. 

Dane/Milwaukee is a smaller chunk of the state than KC/St Louis is in MO but MO Dems can't win the state no matter how much they run up the score in KC/St Louis.
In fact, D did better in rural WI than any other midwestern state. Had Rural WI voted like MI or MN, WI would be like OH.
Not that much difference. If you go on DRA and remove all the counties that are considered urban in the Census, you get these numbers:
MN: Trump 61.97% Biden 35.9%
WI: Trump 60.47% Biden 37.98%

This is kind of subjective admittedly, for example one would probably argue the counties around Dane County are still generally rural despite the census designation, but even if you include them that just shows the key difference is the overall influence of Dane County.
AP VoteCast shows WI rural white, which is 45% of the electorate, voted Trump 57-41. MN 61-38, MI 62-37. So if they voted like MN, Trump will win WI by 7%.
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