What State Legislatures will be heavily contested in 2024?

[David Hume]

This is perhaps the biggest question given most Governorships aren't up. Here's my list:

Pennsylvania State House - In a pretty big upset, Ds technically won a majority by 1 seat but for a variety of reasons, it may not rlly function as a majority. I imagine this chamber will be heavily contested with both sides trying to gain the seats for a clear majority. Prolly a tossup for now.

Michigan State House - Ds have a very narrow majority they won by breaking through in several Trump districts. Again, expect it to be heavily contested. Tossup for now.

New Hampshire State House - Rs literally have a 1 seat majority post-2022 and like PA, it's entirely possible Ds somehow end up being the majority caucus. Tossup for now.

Pennsylvania State Senate - Ds flipping the chamber was never a realistic goal this cycle because of the seats that were up, however, they won the seats they needed to be competitive for 2024. Their best path likely runs through holding all their current seats, plus flipping SD-15 (Harrisburg), SD-49 (Erie), and SD-37 (Western Pittsburg). For now, I'd say the GOP is favored cause SD-37 is a Trump district and Ds don't have many options outside these 3 districts.

Minnesota State House - Ds narrowly flipped the chamber this cycle thanks to several suburban gains in Trump-Biden districts. Prolly Lean D for 2022 given they're really only defending Biden territory, but geographic distribution means the median district is to the right of the state by a few points.

Minnesota State Senate. Similar situation to the MN State House but Ds literally control the majority by a single seat. Unlike the State House though, Ds have to defend 2 narrow Trump districts whereas Rs have to defend the outer ring of suburban seats. Prolly a slight Tilt D, but a single seat flipping gives this to the GOP.

Nevada State Senate. Not rlly competitive overall, but Ds will be fighting for the supermajority they need to override Lombardo's veto. They only need to flip 1 seat, likely the Reno based Biden + 16 SD-15. They also have to defend 2 Biden + 9 Las Vegas area seats. I'd say tilt D supermajority, Likely if not Safe D topline.

Nevada State House, same situation expect Ds already have to supermajority which they will be defending. They won the supermajority despite the GOP winning far more votes. They cannot afford to lose any seats though. Tilt D supermajority, and likely if not safe D topline.

Wisconsin State Senate. Simillar situation to NV except it's the GOP who will be fighting to keep their supermajority. Rs can only lose 1 seat, the most vulnerable perhaps being Biden + 1 SD-05 just outside Milwaukee. Ds only have 1 seat that looks potentially vulnerable, Biden + 6 SD-32 based around La Crosse. Tilt Rs keep their supermajority, safe R topline.

Wisconsin State House, where Rs will be fighting to gain back a supermajority so they can override Ever's vetos. Basically requires them to sweep the table, so Lean no supermajority, but Safe R topline.

Arizona. Rs currently control both chambers by a single seat, and Ds came shockingly close to flipping them in 2022 so expect serious investment here. Tossup.

Dems controlled MN House before. MN Senate is not up for 2024.

[David Hume]

If Ds win the WI Supreme Court race, we will almost certainly have new state legislative maps.

Very unlikely, since the map was chosen by WISC. If they do it, it would considered as blatant activism, and maybe enough for the R senate to impeach the Dem justices.

[David Hume]

If Ds win the WI Supreme Court race, we will almost certainly have new state legislative maps.

Very unlikely, since the map was chosen by WISC. If they do it, it would considered as blatant activism, and maybe enough for the R senate to impeach the Dem justices.

Does this not apply in NC?  Obviously Dems can’t impeach there, but it is the same situation.

IIRC they don't have supermajority before election. And they were expecting to flip it to 5-2 so not that eager to do so.