2022 House popular vote with adjustment to uncontested races

[David Hume]

I did the calculation using the third method I described in a previous post. This is the map of HPV in each state. The NPV is R+1.70.



This is the map compared to NPV.



It's interesting that GA voted to the right of NC. AZ and WI are still barely to the right of the country, but PA is to the left. If 2024 is a neutral year, and there is a uniform swing, R will barely win the presidency based on statewide HPV. But if it is  D+2, D will win every Biden state except GA.

[David Hume]

I did the calculation using the third method I described in a previous post. This is the map of HPV in each state. The NPV is R+1.70.



This is the map compared to NPV.



It's interesting that GA voted to the right of NC. AZ and WI are still barely to the right of the country, but PA is to the left. If 2024 is a neutral year, and there is a uniform swing, R will barely win the presidency based on statewide HPV. But if it is  D+2, D will win every Biden state except GA.

This is the shift from 2020 HPV.

[David Hume]

I did the calculation using the third method I described in a previous post. This is the map of HPV in each state. The NPV is R+1.70.



This is the map compared to NPV.



It's interesting that GA voted to the right of NC. AZ and WI are still barely to the right of the country, but PA is to the left. If 2024 is a neutral year, and there is a uniform swing, R will barely win the presidency based on statewide HPV. But if it is  D+2, D will win every Biden state except GA.

This is the shift from 2020 HPV.

Maine should be slightly to the left of 2020. Both Pingree and Golden won by slightly larger margins.

In my calculation I only used first round result