how do you rank geographic advantage?

[David Hume]

WI is probably the best example of R's geographic advantage, with D voters packed in MM and it's almost nature to draw a 6-2 map.

MA is probably the best example of D's geographic advantage, where it's almost impossible to draw even one R seat.

Geographic advantage also depends on number of seats. In general, the smaller number of seats, the easier to gerrymander. But if WI only have 2 seats, the huge geographic advantage of R reduces to zero.

How would you rank?

[David Hume]

Calculated this a while back for some states:



Obv the specific number of districts will have an impact (I.e Wisconsin 8 or 9 districts is kind of the worst possible number for Dems), and this has not been updated for the official 2020 census results. I hope to finish this project soon.

What's your methodology?

[David Hume]

The factors that help Democrats most are a high Hispanic population, when the entire state is highly urbanized, or when there are a whole bunch of college grad heavy rural areas.  They do best in the Southwest and New England.

The factors that help Republicans most are a high black population and when there is a single large city, ideally in the middle of the state.  They do best in states with significant majority/plurality black cities and in places where the rural white vote isn't as unanimous, generally the Midwest and Upper South

Most pro-Dem: AK, HI, CA, TX, NV, CO, MA, RI, CT, AZ (R's held the legislature only due to ticket splitting),
Most pro-GOP: WI, MI, MO, OH, PA, TN, KY, NC, IL, NY (the NYC Dem pack is still significant)

This can change significantly over time.  VA and MD used to be very pro-GOP, but are basically unbiased using Biden numbers since enough of the outer suburbs flipped.  MN used to be very pro-Dem but is now basically even.

Agree that midwest is the most pro-R, since the polarization in rural white is moderate, as compared to the south.

I would say MN is very pro-R. If R control the process, they can draw a 6-2 maps easily.