2 Safe R, 3 Safe D, one Likely D (Clinton +8):
I think Dems should be fine with this.
I feel like Democrats don’t understand the urgency of maximizing their advantage during this process. These maps last 10 years and Republicans in Texas, Florida, Ohio, etc, are going to be ruthless. One seat can make a difference in the balance of power.
5-1 or bust in Oregon. 14-3 in Illinois.
5-1 won’t happen unless Dems refuse to compromise, which would result in a walkout.
What would happen if the ORGOP does quorum bust? Ballotpedia seems to think it falls to the Secretary of State and the ORSC; obviously the SoS is a Democrat, and all the justices on the court were appointed by Democratic governors. Do Democrats have any incentive to compromise if the ORGOP is proposing stuff like Plan B and they likely have a favorable court anyway?
Basically same process as TX, Legislative goes to a statewide official while congressional goes to courts. Unlike the Texas Democrats the Oregon GOP actually knows that a quorum bust isn't a vacation time. Not sure how far said court goes. For example people can mention the PA court but they also didn't do stuff like split Bucks county. If you are restricted to a PA court style map you can keep Defazio about mostly the same at Clinton +0. and shore up Schrader to a Safe D district while leaving a new middle district at Trump +1 to 3. The best strategy for OR democrats is to offer a legislative compromise map that keeps the GOP at above 1/3 in exchange for a congressional gerrymander. Other than that they could push for a mid decade redistricting after accepting said court map/compromise map.
I don’t know if the Oregon constitution allows mid decade redistricting. Few states do.
Which state constitution explicitly forbid mi decade redistricting?
