2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I will most likely vote for the UWF candidate Brandon Johnson and then Chuy in the runoff.

Lori Lightfoot will not be reelected, she has embarrassed herself nationally and has angered her old allies while not gaining any new one's. She has only love from the lakefront liberals seeking to gentrify the city. Saying this, ultimately the city is going to go to a pragmatic and trusted establishment figure, and that means Chuy has got this if he plays his cards right and gets the ultimate kingmaker's vote, the one and only Willie Wilson's.

Lightfoot is depending heavily on west and south side Black voters to turn out for her in droves this go round, the thought process being that she's the last shot to have a Black mayor for a while given how the population is declining. I wonder if it'll be enough, but I do think Chuy is a really unique threat to her, having both progressive and establishment support. I'll very likely vote for him myself, just like I did in 2015.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Starting to wonder if Chuy is planning on running an actual campaign. He's got a lot of support based on name recognition right now but I've not seen one ad and his site doesn't even have an Issues section. No platform, no media buys... is this a strategy or was he just busy with the Speaker fight?

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

So, about a month out, let's rate the chances Lori doesn't even make it into the runoff. Sure looks like it'd be that way if the election was held today. If that happens, I would think it would have to be a first.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Why was Lightfoot a fail as Mayor?  Just curious. I actually voted for the legendary Mayor Daily once. He made the trains run on time - sort of. The Pubs back then, as I guess now, were quite a the pathetic lot in both Illinois and Chicago.  My precinct voted 91-9 for McGovern. I voted for Nixon of course, knowing he was probably a crook. I turned the machine lever wearing a Nixon button. That was fun.

She is extremely confrontational and comes off as arrogant. This really helped her in 2019 because she was unknown and was hitting at establishment figures that people were sick of.

It has made it really difficult for her to govern, however. Especially as it’s been a rough few years with Covid and rising crime, the confrontational attitude hasn’t helped.

It’s also making it difficult for her to run for re-election. She is physically incapable of inspiring people. All she knows is how to fight. It’s not a way to run a re-election campaign.

Interesting parallels to Trump, I realize as I am typing it out.

Trump is absolutely who she reminds me most of. No consistent ideology, no real agenda to speak of. Just reactionary stuff and petty fights. She seems to be against whatever the person she’s annoyed with is for on any given day.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

New poll shows Lightfoot in first, followed closely by Wilson (!) 4.25% margin of error, lots and lots of undecided, so grain of salt obviously. Just reinforces how this is anybody's game still.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000186-0f2d-d41d-afce-bffd7bd60000

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

New poll shows Lightfoot in first, followed closely by Wilson (!) 4.25% margin of error, lots and lots of undecided, so grain of salt obviously. Just reinforces how this is anybody's game still.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000186-0f2d-d41d-afce-bffd7bd60000

Press X to doubt. Chuy at 7%? I know he's dropping in the polls but that just seems impossible.

Can't find any other record of what 1983 Labs is. I feel pretty confident we can junk this one.

Per Illinois Politico:

Who’s behind the polls: 1983 Labs is not affiliated with any candidate, according to Adam Gunther, who leads the firm with Benjamin Bobo. Gunther has worked in digital communications and political campaigns for KNI Communications, and Bobo earned his masters from the University of Chicago with a focus in survey research and election campaigns.

I agree though. Not convinced.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

How likely is Lightfoot to lose her job? Haven't been paying a lot of attention here, but seems she's headed for defeat due to a controversial performance?

I’d put it at 50/50 at this point

This. I tend to think the greatest chance of defeat for her is round one. If she makes the runoff, anything is possible.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Honestly, I was originally pulling for Chuy but after he endorsed Rossana Rodriguez's very questionable opponent I'm hoping Brandon Johnson can pull something off, no matter how unlikely it seems from what I know of the race's current dynamics. Just don't let it be Vallas or Lightfoot.

90+% chance it will be one of them at this point IMO

Who are you holding out hope for? Chuy? Johnson?

I’m probably going to vote for Chuy. I’m pretty uninspired by the field, though. Interested to see which two we end up with and then decide between them.

Brandon Johnson is a hard no from me. Take a look at his tax plan. It’s kooky.

I will say I'd be so appreciative of a Vallas-Garcia or Vallas-Johnson runoff, if only because it offers a break from Lightfoot either way and gives voters an actual tangible choice.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Yeah Lightfoot is done and Vallas-Johnson is a forgone conclusion. Chicago gets a real choice now which I think is only a good thing.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Lightfoot concedes. Wow.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Lightfoot concedes. Wow.

RIP. I really did like her 4 years ago. I bet she endorses Vallas if he lets her.

I enthusiastically voted for her 4 years ago and ended up becoming an “anyone but Lori” voter this go round. What a damn shame.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I find it fascinating that everyone on the political spectrum (conservatives, centrists, liberals) are celebrating the defeat of Lightfoot. When was the last time something like this happened?

The media conversation today has been "she lost because of crime, she lost because of Covid, she lost because of this issue/that issue..." But very little coverage is being given to the simple fact that she mostly lost just because she sucks and everyone hates her.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Did anyone watch the debate? Brandon Johnson kept saying “Latinx” but pronouncing it “Latinik”? Is this another rose Twitter buzz phrase I’ve missed?

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

I still think Vallas wins.

Earlier I said that I would've voted for Johnson in the first round but after reviewing things a bit more I'm back to saying I would've voted for Garcia. Some of Johnson's proposals especially his transit tax one are complete non-starters for me.

But I'd still vote for him in the runoff because Vallas just sucks that much.

Why can't Chicago get even a good candidate for mayor? Even Garcia isn't great, he's just not terrible. I guess Preckwinkle was good but she also got blown out.

Preckwinkle’s blowout loss should tell you that she is, in fact, not good. At least the vast majority of Chicagoans think so.

Yeah, I regret that we ended up with Lightfoot, but that doesn't mean I wish we got Preckwinkle.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

How come Sanders endorsed Johnson but Garcia hasn't yet?
Is there any bad blood between them?

Lingering primary bitterness, also Chuy looks very weak if Vallas wins Mexicans anyway

This. I suspect he stays out of it. He wrote a very non-committal editorial this week outlining what he hopes "the next mayor" does. I think if he was going to endorse, he'd have done it. I also think Vallas comfortably carrying the Hispanic vote is a real possibility.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Final prediction: Vallas by 1-2%. Low turnout among young voters, a slight over performance among Black voters and Hispanic undecideds breaking his way will put him over the top. Gonna be tight though.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Another drop of votes and Johnson went up another quarter of a percent.

Also, these GOP tears are SALTY... and tasty.   Glad y'all are claiming your mans though, we don't want him.

I’m not a Republican and I’m not happy. I do think this city is suffering under crime and heavy taxes and I have no reason to believe Johnson is going to make it better. I want to stay here, I want to be able to afford it and feel safe. I feel like I’ve been ignored once again. 

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Hopefully the City Council handcuffs his agenda. There are still enough old-school Daley/Rahm Dems that I think it can be done.

A good amount of his agenda is either going to be DOA or significantly neutered by city council. I hope he's the kind of leader that's willing to compromise and negotiate, rather than Lightfoot 2.0, choosing to be combative and let the perfect be the enemy of the good. His stewardship will neither be as transformational as "The Movement" hopes, nor as dire as his detractors are currently worried it will be. I'm reserving judgment until I see his leadership style.

[John Forbes Kerrygold 🧈]

Alright, whichever one of you changed Vallas’s wiki page to say “perennial candidate”, you got a good laugh out of me.