If a ban on gay marriage was on the ballot in all 50 states in 2010

[Holmes]

You mean... for the federal constitution, or state constitutions? Cause that would make a difference, actually.

Federal:

The federal amendment has become unpopular. I'm a little more confident in this map.

Statewide:

Compared to my confidence in this one... the greens would be tossups. Most would probably lean for the ban.

[Holmes]

Oh no, this thread already fell in the African-American trap.

African-Americans in and near DC are more accepting of same-sex marriage than elsewhere. Enough to not make them automatic nos.

[Holmes]

The 70% is bogus, yeah. I think the number was more around ~59%, and the no on 8 campaign did like no minority outreaching at all. I dunno if they were just banking on the Bay Area vote or what. There weren't even any blacks in their campaign.

[Holmes]

Ooooh yeah, I forgot how South Dakota was ridiculously close in 2006. Like, California close. Anyone know why? There are not signs of them actually supporting same-sex marriage, is it just because they're not fans of amending their constitution?

[Holmes]

Ooooh yeah, I forgot how South Dakota was ridiculously close in 2006. Like, California close. Anyone know why? There are not signs of them actually supporting same-sex marriage, is it just because they're not fans of amending their constitution?

That's certainly part of it. We tend to instinctively vote against amendment unless there's a really good reason to.  Also, the amendment banned civil unions, domestic partnerships, or anything similar to them; the language said that any "quasi-marital" relationship would be banned, but no one could quite define what that meant.  So some said it would have unintended consequences depending on how it was interpreted.  Also, no one paid much attention to it, because all the energy was focused on the abortion vote that year.

Thanks. I've never been able to find an explanation for the results. I'm surprised that they cared more about criminalizing abortion than banning gay marriage. Chances of the voters repealing the amendment anytime soon is 0%?