2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Holmes]

He's gay though, so angry gay man is close to angry woman.

[Holmes]

Conyers is like 100 years old and has been in the House for over 50 years. He feels so entitled to that seat that even if he was caught in the act of murder, he wouldn't step down.

[Holmes]

Potentially big: “Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner reconsiders: She may challenge John Katko for Congress”

Sounds like she's leaning towards running based on the quotes.

[Holmes]

Quinnipiac has Democrats +14%

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Add 2 points to this margin:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=2012&off=3&elect=0&f=0

It will be more, only because CA will be DvD.

[Holmes]

He breaks a lot of stuff in his intro video.

[Holmes]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

[Holmes]

It would essentially be ceding Florida outright. But they're probably seeing numbers internally that we're not.

[Holmes]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

Can it be? Are we really going to be given a pass on having to fend off Governor Voldemort?

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he passes, but I don't think it would be the last we see of him. He would easily take Rubio's seat in 2022, and maybe that's on his mind. Why spend millions upon millions of personal wealth on a race you'll probably lose when Rubio likely will step down in 2022 and you'd be the clear frontrunner?

[Holmes]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

Can it be? Are we really going to be given a pass on having to fend off Governor Voldemort?

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he passes, but I don't think it would be the last we see of him. He would easily take Rubio's seat in 2022, and maybe that's on his mind. Why spend millions upon millions of personal wealth on a race you'll probably lose when Rubio likely will step down in 2022 and you'd be the clear frontrunner?

...I don't think Rubio's going anywhere.

He decided not to run for re-election until basically the last minute in 2016 because Republicans had to literally beg him.

[Holmes]

Another one: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/ex-staffers-sen-daylin-leach-crossed-a-line-with-sex-talk-inappropriate-touching-20171217.html

Democrats have lost two top-tier candidates in competitive house races in the past week.

Good. If they're creeps then they shouldn't even be candidates.

[Holmes]

Pro-Trump PAC has Dems up 12%, 37-49, and some other tax bill stuff.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/republican-poll-shows-political-challenges-possible-benefits-of-passing-tax-bill/article/2643873

[Holmes]

It rained in NoVA and Dems swept there. Rain is good now.

[Holmes]

Also to consider: since Democrats are more compacted into high-D PVI districts, there’s only a limited number of more votes they can squeeze of them. Thus, you could imagine that the difference between a popular vote of D+16 and D+8 would be even more massive than thought. There’s not a lot more votes that Ds could get in New York City, for example, since a lot of those areas already vote 80-20 D-R. So the increased margin has to come from more swingy districts, or from safe R districts.

We saw this in Shelby county (and to a smaller extent in Baldwin county) last week in AL, and the Tennessee special election last night, and all the specials in Oklahoma this past year.

[Holmes]

Interesting. New Mclaughlin poll has Democrats narrowly leading the generic ballot 45-44.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2017/12/20/december-national-survey-results/

For anyone not knowing who these clowns are, they are the polling company that showed Cantor crushing Bratt by 40 in the primary a few days before he lost by 20.

It was raining in NoVA that day.

[Holmes]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

[Holmes]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

Worst case scenario....how many House R seats will there be left in CA?

LaMalfa, McClintock, Cook, Nunes, McCarthy, Calvert and Hunter.

[Holmes]

California Republican will be massacred next year.

NJ Republicans will also be joining them in the unemployment line.

And upstate NY Republicans.

[Holmes]

I can't find the article but apparently Paul Davis in KS-02 is out raising his GOP opponent who is a state senator who jumped in atvtheclastvsection cause all the big names passed and he's run on the platform of "stop a democrat from winning this seat". So dems could pick up 2 house seats in Kansas next years

I would even say that KS-02 is more likely than to flip KS-03 at this point. Amazing how much candidate quality alone can affect these things.

KS-02 will be won on candidate quality. KS-03 is very similar to the areas in Virginia and Alabama that swung harshly against the Republicans this year though, so I think it might still be more likely to flip. Who knows, maybe a 3-1 Democratic congregation is possible in Kansas in 2019.

[Holmes]

Interesting list from Decision Desk, they have some districts on there that I consider heavier lifts than some districts absent from their list.

[Holmes]

Looks like Clarke Tucker will be running for AR-02 because of favorable numbers he's seeing.

http://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2017/dec/31/ready-for-a-run-20171231/

[Holmes]

I question the Democrats' ability to keep enthusiasm high for another 11 months. I doubt it can remain at the levels immediately post Trump, especially if Mueller clears Trump and Congress passes infrastructure spending.

There's no enthusiasm. Democrats aren't enthusiastic because Trump is president. They're mad and committed to getting out. That won't change. It'll only intensify as the actual campaign season approaches. 

[Holmes]

Trump admin pulls out of drilling off the coast of Florida only, which is BS, but maybe means Scott is running?

[Holmes]

Yikes. That alone means all Clinton districts in California fall and probably a few surprises too.

[Holmes]

Couldn't find a FL thread to post this, and relates to recruitment but.... Possible sign that Rick Scott isn't 100% behind running.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/new-alarm-among-republicans-that-democrats-could-win-big-this-year/2018/01/13/9be31acc-f8a8-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?utm_term=.9665e350a0b2

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The stupid offshore drilling shenanigan was clearly the White House pushing Scott. I still maintain that Rubio won't run again in 2022 and if Scott wants an easy, cheap seat, he should go for that.

[Holmes]

From NY Post: Nancy Pelosi is reportedly trying to recruit Lt. Gov Kathy Hochul to run for NY-27 against Chris Collins.

She'd be strong, and Collins has quite a few controversies regarding investments, but she would be trading an easy re-election to run.