GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Holmes]

Well Presidential races are only one it out of many. House, Senate, state legislature, local county offices... if you compared the 2016 Presidential vote to the 2016 votes down ballot in this district, you won't get a left of center district.

[Holmes]

Given the amount of butthurtness of the Dem base, they won't believe the Fulton result which will put Ossoff way under 50... These computer problems will again led to Russia nonsense. But ok, more to joke for us.

Who said that

[Holmes]

Can we all please have a moment of silence for Mondale and his $500...

The winner won't be decided until June so nothing is lost.

[Holmes]

Given the amount of butthurtness of the Dem base, they won't believe the Fulton result which will put Ossoff way under 50... These computer problems will again led to Russia nonsense. But ok, more to joke for us.

Who said that

Go to twitter, the amount of sh**t coming from their accounts is frightening...

Do you.... spend early Wednesday mornings reading tweets and getting frightened?

[Holmes]

Nate Cohn says Ossoff will end up with around 47.7 percent.

That's not completely out of line with polling, if you assume some undecideds went to ossof.

Landmark will probably be closest but not dead on.

[Holmes]

A loss is a loss. More proof that the Democrats need to move to the center. This isn't Kenosha. A DLC Democrat like Zell Miller might've had a chance here.

8/10

[Holmes]

I have a feeling Dems will fall short in all 5 special elections and it will mean nothing for 2018.

Republicans should win in South Carolina comfortably and they didn't even make the runoff in California.

[Holmes]

Yep.

Research shows that special elections are more in line with the most recent presidential vote than with the most recent house race.

In Georgia it was, not Kansas. I expect it to be the case in South Carolina, but not Montana.

[Holmes]

Gabriel Debenedetti @gdebenedetti
•'16 margin in KS4: R+31. '17: +7 (-24 swing)
•'16 margin in GA-06: R+24. '17: ~even (-24ish)
•'16 in MT-AL: R+15
•'16 in SC-5: R+20

The more relevant comparisons are to 2014 in KS and to the 2016 Presidential race in GA...

It's best to compare apples to apples, not apples to oranges.

[Holmes]

Ok let's not act like he came 2% from a majority tonight and will lose by 10% in June.

[Holmes]

So for people saying Ossoff loses support in the runoff, are you saying some of his voters will switch to Handel or that his voters won't all turn up whereas Republicans will have more consistent turnout and all vote for her?

[Holmes]

So you give up on a winnable race because you were less than 2% from a majority in the first round.

[Holmes]

Getting 48% in the primary is a very encouriging sign.

To concern trolls: remember that the republicans won this district 61-38 last year. The fact that the Democrats got 48% in an R+8 district is a good sign.

There's 2 months left and plenty of time for Handel to coalition-build. 48% in a mere run-off won't matter so much if it all becomes a blowout come the big one.

There's already a Republican coalition in this district. She shouldn't have to build one.

lol @ Klartext whining about spin when his previous post was pulling numbers out of his ass based on Rasmussen polls and the results here tonight.

[Holmes]

Getting 48% in the primary is a very encouriging sign.

To concern trolls: remember that the republicans won this district 61-38 last year. The fact that the Democrats got 48% in an R+8 district is a good sign.

There's 2 months left and plenty of time for Handel to coalition-build. 48% in a mere run-off won't matter so much if it all becomes a blowout come the big one.

There's already a Republican coalition in this district. She shouldn't have to build one.

lol @ Klartext whining about spin when his previous post was pulling numbers out of his ass based on Rasmussen polls and the results here tonight.

Truth hurts?

What truth? Did I dispute anything? I called you a hypocrite and you said "truth hurts" so I guess so.

[Holmes]

A week after complaining that Democrats didn't do enough for Thompson, he's all "Ossoff who?"

[Holmes]

Ossoff raised $500K today

The guy is a monster. I'll give him that.

If he wins here, he could be a threat in an open Senate seat down the line.

[Holmes]

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

This bodes well for the rest of the South.

Just North Carolina and Florida, and Texas marginally. Virginia is already "there".

[Holmes]

What you are seeing here, ladies and gentlemen, is Georgia beginning the transition to becoming a blue (Atlas red) state.

This bodes well for the rest of the South.

Just North Carolina and Florida, and Texas marginally. Virginia is already "there".

North Carolina and Florida are probably going to remain tossup states in 20 years. But yes, I do concede that Georgia is not a matter of "if," but a matter of "when" with regards to becoming Safe D.

You think Metro Atlanta will have the same kind of pull in Georgia that NoVA has on Virginia?

[Holmes]

https://mobile.twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/858147424271048704

Maddow is a little too excited but this doesn't help with Handel's image of being a fake career politician.

[Holmes]

Handel is the same horrible candidate she's always been.

[Holmes]

Well Republicans got 51% or so of the combined vote in the primary, so assuming turnout is the same, he needs to pick up votes somewhere.

[Holmes]

Yeah Ossoff should stop spending money.

[Holmes]

It's Gravis and they pulled numbers out of their ass.

[Holmes]

It's an improvement over the 60% the Republicans got in the jungle. Bodes well for Ossoff. All the shenanigans going on in Washington should also help Ossoff too. Still toss up, but tilt Ossoff now maybe?

[Holmes]

Still pure tossup, if it were held today Ossoff would win, but it'll be tossup on the 20th.

Who knows? Early voting starts soon. It skews Democratic but those are still votes in the bank at a time where maybe Republican enthusiasm is low, and they can't afford to lose any votes here.