Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[Holmes]

High turnout at my precinct. Lots of olds and wealthies. Very few youngs. Looks like Lyin' Bernie's fixin' to get a good old fashioned New York whuppin'.

Well with the electorate being about 65% 45+ and it being late morning, of course you'd see lots of olds.

[Holmes]

Yeah, his campaign has been on TV yesterday and his morning saying NY is a dud for them, I'd be discouraged if I were a Sanders supporter.

[Holmes]

Leaked exit polls show Sanders at 65%.

[Holmes]

Nothing out of Nassau county which should be heavily Hillary.  Shoudk bump it back to 60 40 possibly

I don't think so, but it should bump it up a little. She's surprisingly weak in Suffolk so far.

[Holmes]

It's look like it'll be around 58-42, whatever precincts that are left are majority in counties Clinton won 60%+ or close.

[Holmes]

I am a bit shocked she lost Albany County.

Me too.

[Holmes]

Don't know if it was mentioned upthread, but the Clinton County streak continues, as Bernie won close to 75% of the vote there!  Hillary has yet to win a single Clinton County.

She's won more Holmes counties than she's lost though.

[Holmes]

It's scary how close this is going to end up being to the 08 primary. Hillary currently has 30k less votes than in 08, Bernie has 1k more than Obama.

Yet the map looks incredibly different. I agree with one of your previous posts, that the swing map is going to be fascinating.

Clinton's path to victory in 16 is a hybrid of Obama 08 and Clinton 08. She's doing much better with minorities (especially African-Americans) and urban whites, but has lost the rural white vote (which are generally lower income compared to urban whites, so are more receptive to Sanders' message).

[Holmes]

So basically as I see it the democratic primary vote is divided into 3 main groups: establishment voters; minorities; progressive voters (who swallow the indie vote). Obama 08 had minorities and progressive voters, Clinton 16 has minorities and establishment. To win the race you need 2 of the 3

There is also an n anti-establishment group that is conservstive, but votes against the Democrats rather than for a candidate's policies. Think Oklahoma, or how Sanders more often than not wins the "wants less conservative policies than Obama" vote in the exit polls. They voted against Obama in the 2008 primary for... let's say racial reasons, but now that Clinton represents Obama, and Sanders has consistently put down Obama they vote for Sanders.