Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems

[Holmes]

And under a Republican Presidency, 2018 could be a net loss of seats too. Only MO looks like a really certain GOP pickup, and in a good Democratic year it's plausible y'all could gain AZ and NV and hold your vulnerable Northern seats.

I dunno, a lot of states in 2010 went Republican when they logically should have went Democratic after 2008, so...

[Holmes]

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I dunno, a lot of states in 2010 went Republican when they logically should have went Democratic after 2008, so...
[/quote]

Why? 2010 was a midterm under a Democratic Presidency. Losses were to be expected, even if the size might not have been anticipated prior to Scott Brown's victory. If 2018 is also a midterm under a Democratic presidency, it'll probably look like 2010/2014. If it is a Republican midterm, Democrats might enjoy a small pickup.
[/quote]

At this time after the 2008 elections, nobody expected Democrats to lose Senate and Governorships in states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts (2009)... Democrats were supposed to get above 60 seats after 2010, but that didn't work out.

On the other hand, after 2010 nobody expected Democrats in 2012 to win Senate races in Indiana and North Dakota, and to hold Montana.

So making guesses about the 2016 and 2018 elections is kind of pointless at this point.