2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Holmes]

Quite the backlash against the NDP in Interlake and Swan River, as somewhat expected. I was hoping the NDP could do better in Swan River, but the night's not over yet...

PC doing better than expect in Fort Richmond and River East too.

[Holmes]

Why the backlash against the NDP in Interlake/Swan River?

Flood.

[Holmes]

NDP back up in Interlake! 19 votes apart though.

[Holmes]

Anyone else bothered by a large NDP majority on a minority of the popular vote?

Surprised yes, but not bothered. The wrong places swung to the PCs for them to make any real gains. That's their weakness in Manitoba. It's somewhat what I'm expecting in Ontario too on Thursday - Liberals having a last minute "surge", but not anywhere that it'll make a real difference.

[Holmes]

Interlake and Swan River have swapped. Swan River looks like it's heading for an NDP hold, Interlake still competitive. Looks like the PCs will hold Brandon West and River East, as well.

[Holmes]

308's going to get this one right

Popular vote will be wrong though. I guess the moral of the story is that it's okay to be a bit risky with the popular vote when it comes to Manitoba elections.

[Holmes]

Interlake and Swan River have swapped. Swan River looks like it's heading for an NDP hold, Interlake still competitive. Looks like the PCs will hold Brandon West and River East, as well.

Not much of Swan River is in yet. Interlake does look like a nailbiter though...

Swan River has become a 300 vote lead for NDP, so it's getting close. Interlake is back to NDP, by 8 votes... I dunno if they can hold on though. (now 3 votes)

Who is John Zasitko, does anyone know? Independent in Interlake.

[Holmes]

Well, the night's basically over. I believe the chances of Kirkfield Park flipping to PC are the same as River East or Brandon West flipping to NDP... not very great, with so little polls left to report. So just waiting on Interlake and Swan River, really.

[Holmes]

Did we miss this Yukon poll? Not a match up, per se, but still insightful.

http://www.datapathsystems.net/

Go to press releases, and click on September 2011. More people satisfied with Yukon Party representatives than NDP representatives. But NDP has more trust on most issues. But Yukon Party has more trust on the economy and government management. So... who really knows?

[Holmes]

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[Holmes]

NDP up 7% in BC. But we've all seen this before. NDP does good in BC in between elections, but come election day...

NDP - 45%
BC Libs - 38%
BC Cons - 12%
Green - 6%

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Democrats+pull+decisive+lead+poll+finds/5514730/story.html

What's interesting is BC Conservatives at 12%.

[Holmes]

New poll for Newfoundland and Labrador, but it's weird. The numbers are way too low. Undecideds at 30%?

PC - 38%
NDP - 23%
Lib - 9%

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Canada/1266958.html

[Holmes]

Well, I hope the NDP can come out as the Opposition in NL. What times do polls close? And NL must have the most boring party logos ever.

As for Yukon, with things this close, and it being Yukon, there may be some strange results... NDP will do great in Whitehourse, Yukon Party outside of it, but with Liberals only 9% behind, they might be spoilers in some cases. Could tip things.

[Holmes]

Polls close at 6:30? Damn, I'm probably gonna be out then. I hope I don't miss it all. As for Saskatchewan, that's gonna be a snooze. The NDP need to dump Lingenfelter first of all, and hope that they have a strong leader when Wall retires. Which can be in a long time.

[Holmes]

Harper's three stooges - Baird, Flaherty, and of course, Clement - are all very caricature-like, yes. I got the image from the Globe and Mail. Rather subtle, no?

[Holmes]

Oh, I wasn't able to make it back in time for this... oh well. Interesting results, I suppose. NDP in a lot of second places, and in very far third in other places. Liberals did better than everyone expected, I think. But in the end, much of the movement here was Liberal to NDP. St. John's has a lot of potential for the NDP.

[Holmes]

Psh. Watch the Libs retain opposition status. Wouldn't be surprised.

[Holmes]

The NDP's best result ever in Newfoundland, and people are disappointed that they just miss official opposition... still, it took a decade for the NDP to form government in Nova Scotia after their real breakthrough in 1998, so the Newfoundland NDP have a real job ahead of themselves.

[Holmes]

These past elections have all been pretty incumbent party-friendly, despite what they were supposed to be just five months ago.

[Holmes]

Yeah. Still, the results weren't too bad. The NDP knows what it has to do going forward, and it knows the inroads it has to make, and where. The "trends" are definitely there in Newfoundland - a lot of second place finishes. Ontario will always be difficult for Ontario, but Horwath is a good leader. And Yukon... territories will always have wacky voting patterns, so the next election might have the NDP back in third, or in first. Who really knows?