🇦🇺 Australian Indigenous Voice to Parliament Referendum (October 14th)

[JimJamUK]

54-46 No. Only Vic and ACT votes yes.

On that margin I really struggle to see NSW voting yes, and quite possibly Victoria as well.

[JimJamUK]

Have any current Labor officials stated that they voting against the referendum?

I don’t think so. Labor tightly binds its elected official to support party policy, so the most criticism you get is the Queensland premier saying she’s voting yes but would welcome more information for voters to make a decision.

[JimJamUK]

83% of Indigenous people support the Voice: https://www.unsw.edu.au/news/2023/06/ten-questions-about-the-voice-to-parliament---answered-by-the-ex

And that's from the University of New South Wales, not The Guardian.

Those polls are months out of date. It’s not hard to believe that indigenous support is a lot lower now given it is a lot lower among the population as a whole. And I’m not sure that the university article you quote is much more independent than something from The Guardian, given the article is entirely about countering No arguments.

[JimJamUK]

Personally I’m a touch sceptical of any polling crosstabs, but especially those for immigrants where they’re very new and haven’t settled down like age crosstabs have. But ultimately we’ll know how immigrant communities actually vote from Western Sydney/the usual Outer Melbourne electorates.

I suspect part of the story will be how many do not vote at all despite compulsory voting.

[JimJamUK]

I was also thinking about this, as well.

Though I'm curious - was there an expectation for the Labor gov't to introduce a new monarchy referendum? Or was that more of a hope among people who want the monarchy to be abolished in Australia?

Albanese appointed a ‘Minister for the Republic’ and its Labor policy to abolish the monarchy so theoretically they could do so. However, he’s already said it won’t happen in his first term and you have to wonder if the government really wants to spend months and months arguing over a model followed by more trying to get it over the line.