Danish Elections and Politics

[JimJamUK]

The government then hopes to get support by tying the decision very close to the defence area. So Minister of Defense Jakob Ellemann said on Friday that parties need to support the abolishment of the holiday if they are to be part of the negotiations of a new defence settlement, where expenditure is to be raised quicker than currently agreed. So this particularly pressures Social Liberals, Conservatives and SPP, who are part of the current defence agreement.
So the government probably hopes in this way to push the Conservatives to accept it, and hope the Social Liberals do as well. And then maybe a party like the Liberal Alliance could end up in the negotiations as well. Several of the other opposition parties are attacking the new government for being so brute in pushing through this unpopular measure.

Didn’t Frederiksen talk about how she wanted broad agreements that include parties outside the government? ‘Vote with us on this policy or we won’t even talk to you about another agreement’ is hardly pragmatic, consensus seeking politics.

[JimJamUK]

Epinion for DR has polled the approval rating of all party leaders and members of the government.

Do Danish pollsters ever give any kind of party or ideological subsamples for approval ratings? It would certainly be interesting to see Frederiksen’s net approval among the likes of SF or Venstre voters, and to see how much the good ratings for people like Olsen Dyhr, Vanopslagh and Tesfaye rely on support from voters within their own blocks (variously defined) vs genuine crossover appeal with people who would otherwise have little good to say about the rest of their party.

[JimJamUK]

Haven't seen it recently, and it wasn't shown in this poll. But it was sometimes included, like in the polling of preferred PM candidates.

Yeah, I vaguely remember it happening at the general election last year where Frederiksen was shown to have the universal support of Social Democratic voters. It’s a shame that Danish pollsters usually include only the headline figures, while pollsters in many other countries, most obviously the UK, can release an abundance of information in each publicly released poll.

[JimJamUK]

The government has decided to remove the punishments for the civil servants in the Mink Scandal. The previous government set down a three-person working group to advise it, led by Thomas Rørdam, the same justice who led the witch trial against Inger Støjberg. The group completely rejects the findings in the Mink Commission, and believes nothing illegal happened. So therefore there shouldn't be punishments for the civil servants, including the powerful permanent secretary in the Prime Ministry, Barbara Bertelsen. A further step towards banana republic territory, and certain to intensify the dislike against Frederiksen and the perceived power arrogance. Also re-highlights this issue for the Liberal + Moderate voters and members, who are sceptical of the decision to join a government with Frederiksen at the helm.

I take it you’re not thrilled?

But yeah, this has horrible optics by itself and the new majority government has shown little interest in shaking off the ‘powerful’ label so will reap the consequences.

[JimJamUK]

The alliance with SPP makes all the sense in the world, and what I predicted they would do. But the link with the Social Democrats do surprise me. I would guess that perhaps SPP must have been very insistent on making the alliance with the Social Democrats, and then perhaps the Alternative had to take it or leave it if they wanted an alliance. SPP have been very close to the Social Democrats in recent years and maybe wanted to "keep the line warm", but I think it would have been very fine for them to run just with the Alternative this time and ensure that they got the benefit of all the Alternative votes themselves.

The Red-Greens are already trying to hammer the Alternative for this. Their EP lead candidate Per Clausen: "The Alternative prefer to provide votes for the Social Democrat refugee, climate and environmental policies over the Red-Greens. I don't understand that choice", and their former Copenhagen mayor Morten Kabell: "So much for the Alternative and Franciska Rosenkilde's critic of the system. They prefer a black Social Democrat in the EP rather than a green representative from the Red-Greens".

Is there any unhappiness in SF about this decision? They are in opposition to a Social Democrat led ‘government across the middle’ which is pursuing policies they disagree with and are the largest opposition party to it in both seats and polling. You’d think in such a situation they’d actually try and set out a distinctive position rather than continue trying to tightly hug the Social Democrats.

[JimJamUK]

Mette Frederiksen has barely commented on the issue, and the Liberals are completely silent while they await Ellemann's return next week. It would surprise me a lot if not several/all of the parties to the right of the Liberals will make a big deal out of this, potentially even with a vote of no confidence about Løkke. He would of course survive such a vote with support from the government and likely the Red Bloc parties, but it would put some pressure on the Liberals, where several MPs can't be happy with this development.

Which Red parties would even vote confidence in him? SF have been very critical of these proposals and I doubt EL would back a minister of the current government. I don’t know about The Alternative. I suppose RV would if you count them as ‘Red’.

[JimJamUK]

Yeah, I actually thought at least Social Liberals and SPP might back the government on this, but so far all the opposition parties have come out against it, although with the Social Liberals being prepared "listen to what the government has to say". Only the Alternative hasn't commented yet, as far as I've seen.

But yeah, you are right. The blue parties could probably make a vote of no confidence more neutral, and not tie it directly to this question to get maximum support. But so far there isn't even talk about about such a vote.

And perhaps we already have the first Liberal MP coming out against it. Kim Valentin on Twitter quoted a user saying "Burning books makes the free public debate stupid. A ban on burning books makes the free public debate impossible", and says that was a very good quote which encapsulates freedom of speech to him.

I’m not too surprised about SF, they take a principled progressive position in favour of freedom of speech and the right to criticise religion/human rights abusers. EL were a bit more unclear given their more politically correct view of offending minorities, but the threat of limiting the right to criticise foreign governments has obviously alienated them as well. I’ve just read the Alternative support some sort of ban, so they seem the most favourable towards the government’s position.

[JimJamUK]

This question seems to be causing a lot of internal problems in the parties supporting it. Another Social Democrat MP Frederik Vad has published a picture of Salman Rushdie, and tweeted that his party and MP colleague Per Husted was absurd for wanting to go even further to appease the Islamic world by banning drawings of Muhammed.

In the Alternative, which so far is the only opposition party supporting the idea, one of their six MPs, Theresa Scavenius has tweeted that she will vote against the proposed changes.
There must be several more Liberal MPs incensed about this as well.

Are any of the government MPs saying or at least inferring they would vote against it, or are they just signalling they don’t agree with it in advance of voting for it anyways? If they did vote against what would be the consequences?

[JimJamUK]

Seven opposition parties have made a common statement against the government's ideas. Only Social Liberals and Alternative are not part of this declaration, and even those parties are split. Incredible how Løkke managed to drag the government's position so far to the left on this issue. There must be some polling results on this question soon, and the results will be interesting to see.

I’m not sure EL would consider Løkke to be dragging the government to the left 😁

[JimJamUK]

Vanopslagh opens for government with the Social Liberals

In an interview with Politiken, the Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh opens for a government with the Social Liberals. When pushed on alternatives to the current government, and whether a pure Blue Bloc government would be remotely feasible, he said that "There could be the option of a centre-right government with Liberals, Conservatives, Moderates, Social Liberals and Liberal Alliance, and then supported by the necessary seats by perhaps Denmark Democrats or DPP. I'm not saying this would be easy to pull off, but it's not an impossible task". He then went on to say that he has an excellent cooperation with the Social Liberal leader Martin Lidegaard, and that he believes that their two parties could do something great in terms of economic reforms, and that the Social Liberals would be allowed to "step on it" in terms of climate policies.

Lidegaard's response has been positive. He has said he does not rule out any scenario and hope to continue the excellent cooperation with LA. He states that the parties does not agree on everything, but on a lot, especially in terms of retirement options, international labour, entrepreneurship and less bureaucracy in the public sector.

It would be interesting to see DD and DF in the same governing majority as RV. The former of course would find much in common on climate and the latter surely sees completely eye to eye on immigration and retirement with RV…

But seriously, it’s bonkers enough that it could actually happen, especially as RV currently lacks  any real purpose given they refused to go into government but back it on almost everything anyways.