Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[JimJamUK]

Ukraine has seem continued success in its Kharkiv counter offensive. There are unsupported rumors that Ukraine has retaken Ternova while it is definitely confirmed that they are nearing it. If/when they take it the Izium supply lines are f**ked. In general it’s now the waiting game for the Ukraine counterattacks to officially cut into the Izium lines and force either a Kyiv style collapse or a mass surrender by the Russian troops there

But are they? They'd still need to take/approach Vovchansk on the other side of the river to cut off the main road from Belgorod, and there's still main roads to the east that lead to Izyum. Don't get me wrong, it would certainly help Ukraine to cut off that specific supply route and the alternatives are longer, but it doesn't seem like a devastating blow unless Ukraine are able to significantly reverse the tide around Lyman and properly start isolating Russian troops in the Izyum front.

[JimJamUK]

Continued presence of American nukes to Germany receive the strongest support from Green voters (64%)

LOL

[JimJamUK]

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1534450075786698752?s=20&t=fXEAlFPpkDQa...

Obviously hope to be proven wrong, but I’m sceptical of any sudden significant advances for Ukraine in the Kherson area. Despite regular claims of major advances over the past couple of months, Ukrainian forces seem to have gained little ground and are still stuck around the edges of Kherson Oblast.

[JimJamUK]

Are there any estimates how many Ukrainians are left living in occupied territory? (incl Crimea)

Would also be interested in any analysis of the economy in post-February occupied parts of Ukraine.

[JimJamUK]

I seriously doubt that, maybe in the Donbass, but this is from Kharkiv oblast where the Russians are well aware the locals identify as Ukrainians.

It’s a minority, but there’s quite a lot of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in eastern Kharkiv oblast (and a majority in some villages). In the 2019 elections it was the best area for the pro-Russian opposition outside the Donbass/southern Odessa oblast. It’s obviously difficult to accurately work out how much support the Russians have amongst occupied civilians, but I would imagine it’s higher there than the likes of Kherson.

[JimJamUK]

It’s a minority, but there’s quite a lot of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in eastern Kharkiv oblast (and a majority in some villages). In the 2019 elections it was the best area for the pro-Russian opposition outside the Donbass/southern Odessa oblast. It’s obviously difficult to accurately work out how much support the Russians have amongst occupied civilians, but I would imagine it’s higher there than the likes of Kherson.

I'd be very reluctant to translate support of "pro-Russian" parties to Russian national identity or support for annexation by Russia outside of the Donbass.

I’d translate it as relatively less strongly opposed, but since credible opinion polling cannot be carried out I have no idea whether that’s 5% support or 50% support (but I’d guess closer to the latter).

[JimJamUK]

Well this is discouraging. The Russians per the NYT are closing in on Bakhmut.

I think I get Putin's end game and strategy. He wants to snatch everything where at least a substantial minority of the population do not, even now, hate what Putin is doing. It is rust belt places sort of like Youngstown Ohio on steroids where whatever remnants of the educated middle class are mostly long gone, and people remember the "good old days" of plants humming during the era of the Soviet empire.

Support for Russia is not based on the lack of ‘educated middle class’ (when did such people live in Bakhmut?) or the deindustrialisation of eastern Ukraine*, it’s based on the non-insignificant Russian minorities. Case in point, Bakhmut is 28% Russian by ethnicity and 62% Russian by language. Whatever proportion of these groups that still back Russia are doing so based on identity, not because they are ‘left behind’.

*There is a decent correlation between Russian ethnic/speaking populations and industrialisation/urbanisation in eastern Ukraine as Russian workers moved in large numbers to work in industrial jobs, but I’ve not seen any evidence that economic nostalgia divorced from Russian identity is a significant explanatory factor.