voting patterns in each state since 1984

[Husker]

The Plains states aren't as monolithic as you might think. The western parts of the plains states have cultural similarities from north to south (not accents) but the eastern parts of the Plains states tend to be more like states to their east. For example, eastern Nebraska is very similar to Iowa and rural central and northern IL.  Eastern OK and east TX tend to be pretty southern. In other words, Minot and Amarillo won't have vast differences in culture but Fargo and Texarkana might as well be on different planets. There is potential for democrats to do better in the eastern part of the northern plains states (ND, SD, NE) and we do elect moderate democrats to the Senate. I do attribute some of the lack of democratic success at the presidential level in these areas to the democratic party essentially ignoring us. Obama is the first presidential democrat in four decades to acknowledge that Nebraska exists and guess what, he won an EV here!

Also, and this is big, the lack of labor unions in the Plains compared to points further east contributes to the republican domination. This pro-union/anti-union line is around I-35. East of here, unions are common and it is beneficial for candidates to be pro-union. West of here it is the opposite. As you get into the western part of the plains states, ranching becomes dominant and a democrat should be happy to get a quarter of the vote in many of these counties. Also, the plains states are much more thinly populated than states to the east. Yes, many of our counties were 60, 70, and 80% for McCain. But, when you have 500-1500 votes cast in a county, that percentage really isn't that impressive in the grand scheme of things.

Finally, the long history of the republican party in states KS, NE, and the Dakotas contributes to GOP domination. As someone pointed out earlier, FDR lost all of these states in the 1940's. Actually Obama outperformed FDR '44 in all of these states. OK and TX were strongly democratic back then but switched once oil men and then southern baptists became republican. Actually northern OK was republican in the 1940's as well, as the wheat farmers have long been republican.

[Husker]

Husker's analysis is right on.  I'm a native North Dakotan, and the eastern and western parts of North Dakota embody a political divide as Husker describes, partly due to economic differences ("urban" vs. rural).   But it's also the case that North Dakotans vote moderate Democrats into the Senate and sometimes the House, largely because they find Democrats to be more proactive on ag policy.  But North Dakotans vote for Republicans for executive office because they feel Republicans better represent their social values there.  I was overjoyed, personally, to see that Obama took the plains states seriously and run active campaigns there(he visited Grand Forks twice over the summer).  I think he could have pulled in more than the 45% that he did had he visited NoDak university towns in the West like Bismarck and Dickinson.  Two October polls in North Dakota had the state statistically tied, but there were 11% that were undecided in both, and they seem to have broke almost entirely for McCain at the end.  I don't necessarily think the Dakotas are winnable for Democrats right now because pro-life preferences are very strong there (very large German and Norwegian Catholic polulations).  And a Democrat would have to spend lots of time and resources to win the Dakotas, which together carry only as many electoral votes as Kansas, so...

Democrats seem like they have been able to do a little better in ND than in NE, probably because of a stronger Farm Labor presence. Pro-life sentiments are strong in parts of the rural Plains states but those sentiments are not unique to that area. Catholic and other religious voters in rural and blue-collar households nationwide tend to be pro-life but the pro-life vote can often be overruled by their job and economic circumstances. In places where labor unions and other traditionally democratic jobs are found, pro-life voters will still often vote for the democrat.. especially in a year like 2008. In places where labor unions or farm labor are non-existent, then pro-life voters tend to be more republican on economic issues, and hence the really high republican percentages in many of these rural Plains counties.