Why did CO, MN, and NH have such strong leftward swings?

[sting in the rafters]

Also, why did PA, MI, and WI have much smaller swings?

Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have 3 of the largest moderate populations in the united states, and some of the smallest proportions of the population that identify as conservative. As Biden did extremely well with moderates, it makes sense that the largest swings occurred in places such as New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Virginia, that have large portions of college-educated moderate voters.


 The big 3 Rust Belt states followed the trend nationwide of liberals voting as usual, moderates breaking hard for Biden, and conservatives breaking hard for Trump. Despite voting to the right of the nation, PA/MI/WI actually all have a slightly left-leaning ideological advantage, with each having a lower conservative% and a higher liberal% than the national average. The reason Trump came so close to winning those states despite this disadvantage is he got scorching conservative turnout.

[sting in the rafters]

Also, why did PA, MI, and WI have much smaller swings?

Colorado, Minnesota, and New Hampshire all have 3 of the largest moderate populations in the united states, and some of the smallest proportions of the population that identify as conservative. As Biden did extremely well with moderates, it makes sense that the largest swings occurred in places such as New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oregon, and Virginia, that have large portions of college-educated moderate voters.

That source says HI, DE, RI, ND, and UT have even higher percentages of self-identified moderates. None of CO, MI, NH, or OR are >40% "moderate", but their "moderates" are probably more likely to be socially liberal, college-educated white people than elsewhere.

The 2nd part is just as important as the first. Utah and North Dakota have well over the national average for percentage of population that is conservative, and Delaware/Rhode Island/Hawaii all rank towards the bottom in the same metric.


Indeed, education/religion are factors too. I suspect that is why Biden won moderates by 36 points in Oregon and only 10 in 'Bama.