2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[sting in the rafters]

10/1/1 map.

Majority black seat based on Newark/the Oranges, 2 40+% Hispanic seats bc given partisanship primary control matters more than getting an outright majority. Ds should really go for 10/2 w/the Highlands and Ocean County as R-sinks bc any 10/1/1 map turns to 3/8/1 in an R-wave and the party's done nothing in the ground game to give faith they'd hold that

Light blue district is +6 Biden and it meets all basic requirements lol.

Looks compact and doesn’t unduly favor one party. Well done!

This is what my non-partisan map would look like. It preserves counties and townships and strongly protects communities of interest.

Gerrymander!? I barely know her!

[sting in the rafters]

10/1/1 map.

Majority black seat based on Newark/the Oranges, 2 40+% Hispanic seats bc given partisanship primary control matters more than getting an outright majority. Ds should really go for 10/2 w/the Highlands and Ocean County as R-sinks bc any 10/1/1 map turns to 3/8/1 in an R-wave and the party's done nothing in the ground game to give faith they'd hold that

All these municipal splits are giving me a headache.

The 12th seems very weak for a Hispanic seat, given the turnout dynamics of its component parts and all. Paterson's just sitting on its hands there in the Bergen seat and could easily be added there while balancing things out by moving the heavily white/Asian parts of Bergen up north, without that much change in partisanship in what'll already be a tough hold for the Dems in a Dem midterm.

Props to you for having the willpower to draw Perth Amboy into a Hispanic seat, though. That's something that I always joke about but never works out.

Good looks, yeah Paterson in the 8th was entirely an oversight. Dk how the more upscale portions of Bergen got in the 12th, that alone took it from 40 to 48% Hispanic which given demos takes it to majority by 2030. Disagree on the 8th's vulnerability tho at least in terms of triage, obvi trends are favorable at least on paper relative to the other marginals given educational polarization and income depolarization. Both South Jersey districts are prolly swings by the end of the decade given its more and more to resembling Delmarva than the Philly metro at large.

Splits were originally for the intent of salvaging the compactness score however evidently that went to s---. In hindsight VRA districts should prolly be drawn first as opposed to last, gonna have to get back in the lab.

[sting in the rafters]

10/1/1 map.

2.0

Cleaned up the splits, whipped up the Jersey s---y City district into majority Hispanic despite the best efforts of Hoboken.

NJ Twitter/Maybe Actual Map

The map looks more realistic only because it's in a GIS program instead of DRA. I doubt it's the actual map given that they are still in negotations, but I put it into DRA to see the partisanship.

Northwest Sink is Trump +10.1. Van Drew's seat is Trump +8.9. All the other Dems get safe seats.

I mean, if they were drawing a compromise map and didn’t care about Chris Smith, it makes a lot of sense. This is the correct compromise to draw. Perhaps Smith has decided to retire. With Roe v. Wade about to be overturned, he’s completed his work.

Yeah this is 9/3 at best for Ds. Any D-leaning mander has to crack South Jersey at this point by putting the upscale suburbs around Camden with the Pines. Do not let the proximity to BosWash fool you, The Pines have more than their fair share of downscale whites that the GOP has engaged in the Trump era. Retirees are only gonna keep moving down there and anecdotally Millville/Vineland is the underground drag racing capital of the Mid Atlantic. Its a matter of time before the AC E-Way corridor votes more similarly to the shore-towns of Delmarva than Long Island, which in turn means JVD winning by double digits if Delaware Bay/Pineys are kept together.

[sting in the rafters]

Splitting Ocean is irritating but suppose it's easier to cut the losses with JVD's district now as opposed to later.