What 2000 states are you most worried about your canidate losing?

[WalterMitty]

AL:  i respect your knowledge of virginia, but i think youre reading too much into the warner election.  first of all warner ran as a conservative.  the republicans were having trouble getting a budget passed.  allen and gilmore were blips on virginia's screen, the state has long history of democratic governors.

i certainly agree that the suburbs are trending democratic.  however, i see no evidence of southern virginia becoming democratic.  maybe the old conservative democrats are dying off, but there are a hell of a lot of republicans in the southside.

on the presidential level, dems in virginia can count on:
1. the coalfields
2. the black vote in southeast va
3. the dc suburbs

other than that, i dont see any trending towards the democrats.

im a virginia native and i remember very well how doug wilder wrecked the state.  he is largely responsible for the elections of gilmore and allen.

[WalterMitty]

gore did fairly well in the coalfields.

buchanan, dickenson and russell counties all went for gore.

[WalterMitty]

is kerry going to do better there?

[WalterMitty]

how did chuck robb do in the coal country in 2000.  im assuming gore out-performed robb there?  correct?

[WalterMitty]

yes but va-9 contains a large portion of the non-coal areas of sw va also.

outside of the coal counties, union activity drops off significantly in va.

many of those counties in sw va are former coal counties.  unions left with the departure of the coal companies.

[WalterMitty]

ha.  edwards won the county i was born in.

but al wouldnt you also argue that kerry's strength in the va primary was largely due to his 'frontrunner status'?  most folks, even at that early stage, assumed kerry was going to be the nominee.