Ecuadorian elections (referendum, 21 April 2024)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Where can we follow the results?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Corpmont exit poll:

Luisa González (RC) 32.8%
Daniel Noboa (ADN) 20.5%
Jan Topic (PSC-PSP-CD) 18.3%
Christian Zurita (Construye) 13.7%
Otto Sonnenholzner (Avanza-SUMA) 7.8%
Yaku Pérez (UP-PSE-DS) 4.9%
Bolívar Armijos (AMIGO) 1.1%
Xavier Hervas (RETO) 0.9%

Noboa AT SECOND? He was polling at 3%!

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Corpmont exit poll:

Luisa González (RC) 32.8%
Daniel Noboa (ADN) 20.5%
Jan Topic (PSC-PSP-CD) 18.3%
Christian Zurita (Construye) 13.7%
Otto Sonnenholzner (Avanza-SUMA) 7.8%
Yaku Pérez (UP-PSE-DS) 4.9%
Bolívar Armijos (AMIGO) 1.1%
Xavier Hervas (RETO) 0.9%

Woah, that would be quite the jump for Noboa from what I know of the polling that was done beforehand? But as you mentioned earlier, I'm sure we should be careful /w these results. Solid result for Gonzalez if she's above 30 points albeit not her 'dream numbers' she was polling at whereas Topic would be quite disappointed.

No the numbers for Topic are fine all things considered. He's still polling higher than before the assassination. We should just be happy we don't get another Bukele

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Seems like Villavicenio's replacement is doing pretty well.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Hmm the site isn't working.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Personally fingers crossed Zurita can pull it off.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

So it looks like it's gonna be some combination of Gonzalez-Noboa-Zurita as 1-2-3

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?

This is becoming totally insane.

Christian Zurita has just posted this on his Twitter account:

I share something that I cannot disregard: several months ago, my friend Fernando Villavicencio filed a complaint about a possible contract-killing-type attack. The surprise? He signaled assemblymen from the RC5 and PSC as the supposed ones implicated. Let’s share to be vigilant.

According to Zurita, Villavicencio formally requested in last April the Fiscalía to investigate a potential plan to assassinate him by hitmen, a plan he had been informed by unnamed legislators (Zurita says they wanted to remain anonymous, presumably because of fear of retaliation). The complaint of Villavicencio mentioned the names of five legislators who, allegedly, discussed the assassination plan:

- Pablo Muentes (PSC-Guayas)
- Ronny Aleaga (RC-Guayas)
- Roberto Cuero (RC-Guayas)
- Ronal González (RC-Los Ríos)
- Walter Gómez (RC-Guayas)

All but Aleaga and Gómez are seeking reelection.

Everyone of course will have their own "hunch" but this is the formal accusation by Zurita against (mostly) RC.

RC is González right?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

who would be favored in a Gonzalez v Noboa run off?

Noboa IMO, though the final margin in this round may be interesting in that regard. What unites him, Topic, and to a lesser extent Zurita is that their vote totals have all dramatically increased since the assassinations. That suggests voters went to all of them for the same reasons, albeit with different initial conclusions. One would expect consolidation in a runoff.

Also apparently there was a conspiracy theory that Gonzalez had something to do with the assassination.

Gotta say, if i had to bet a candidate was behind it, it would be Topic - shady paramilitary guy tied to mafia party who gained in the polls after his assassination?

This is becoming totally insane.

Christian Zurita has just posted this on his Twitter account:

I share something that I cannot disregard: several months ago, my friend Fernando Villavicencio filed a complaint about a possible contract-killing-type attack. The surprise? He signaled assemblymen from the RC5 and PSC as the supposed ones implicated. Let’s share to be vigilant.

According to Zurita, Villavicencio formally requested in last April the Fiscalía to investigate a potential plan to assassinate him by hitmen, a plan he had been informed by unnamed legislators (Zurita says they wanted to remain anonymous, presumably because of fear of retaliation). The complaint of Villavicencio mentioned the names of five legislators who, allegedly, discussed the assassination plan:

- Pablo Muentes (PSC-Guayas)
- Ronny Aleaga (RC-Guayas)
- Roberto Cuero (RC-Guayas)
- Ronal González (RC-Los Ríos)
- Walter Gómez (RC-Guayas)

All but Aleaga and Gómez are seeking reelection.

Everyone of course will have their own "hunch" but this is the formal accusation by Zurita against (mostly) RC.

RC is González right?

RC is an umbrella of the entire 'Correaista' political establishment so it's a bit of a stretch to claim Gonzalez is somehow tied to the assassination like you seem to be making, certainly without further proof . She's been ahead in the polls the entire campaign and if anything it actually harmed her chances.

I'm not suggesting she's tied to the assassination. I'm saying it was a conspiracy theory that might have influenced voters.