This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[Wiswylfen]

In retrospect it's quite funny that after years of the North East's political minority (as, despite talk of realignment from the pundit class, they continue to be everywhere outside local newspaper comment sections) moaning about useless party insiders with no connection to the region becoming MPs we've, er, ended up with two Conservatives who are exactly that.

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At conference, first one I’ve been to.

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Out of curiosity I made a list of constituencies (all Tory-held and with majorities listed) where, on criteria outlined in this thread, Tarry could possibly seek selection:

East Worthing and Shoreham - 7,474
Rochford and Southend East - 12,286
Harlow - 14,063
Southend West - 14,459*
Worthing West - 14,823
South Basildon and East Thurrock - 19,922

Other targets in suggested areas have either already selected (Hastings and Rye) or are in the process of selection (Colchester; Dagenham and Rainham; and Thurrock).

[Wiswylfen]

Say, wasn’t Sheffield Central Perkins’s constituency in A Very British Coup?

In the series, yes. It's not stated in the book, but...

Harry Perkins is elected to Parliament in a by-election between 1970 and 1974 (not stated but can be inferred). It's not Hallam. Before then he works at Firth Brown and the constituency he's selected for is on the other side of the city, so not Brightside. It's a safe seat, so not Heeley. Attercliffe is right next door so I don't think it fits "other side", nor does Park (later Central) really, so that leaves Hillsborough, but all of the last three are possibilities.

[Wiswylfen]

Say, wasn’t Sheffield Central Perkins’s constituency in A Very British Coup?

In the series, yes. It's not stated in the book, but...

Harry Perkins is elected to Parliament in a by-election between 1970 and 1974 (not stated but can be inferred). It's not Hallam. Before then he works at Firth Brown and the constituency he's selected for is on the other side of the city, so not Brightside. It's a safe seat, so not Heeley. Attercliffe is right next door so I don't think it fits "other side", nor does Park (later Central) really, so that leaves Hillsborough, but all of the last three are possibilities.

Never mind: I checked The Friends of Harry Perkins, which with its Labour leader who suddenly changes names, anti-Brexit Sir Peregrine, and ending you can see coming from a mile off I had tried to forget. Perkins is MP for the fictional Sheffield Parkside, and is succeeded by Fred Thompson.

20XX general election, Sheffield Parkside

LAB: 28,956 (69.6%) (Thompson, Frederick Aneurin)
CON: 4,780 (11.5%) (Farrow, Melissa Catherine)
ENP: 3,941 (9.5%) (Lawton, Frank Oswald)
LDM: 2,120 (5.1%) (Bonham Carter, Michael Francis)
AFA: 980 (2.4%) (Dixon, Richard Francis)
GRN: 743 (1.8%) (Blagdon, Jonathan Algernon Crispin)
MRL: 98 (0.2%) (Norton, Tracey Jane)

Majority of 24,176 (58.1 points)

[Wiswylfen]

On news note I'm not sure of timings but it appears a new North-East 'Governor/Mayor/Emperor/Governor General' position is being created- will cover Newcastle, Durham, Sunderland, Northumberland and I'm sure some other areas I'm forgetting! Election due possibly in 2024.

Jamie Driscoll, the current Metro Mayor for Newcastle, wants to be the labour candidate; he v much got the position as an underdog in 2019 as he had only been a councillor for a year but was popular among the left.

He beat Nick Forbes and my first thought was that Nick Forbes might try to run for this if he doesn't go for a Westminster seat; he was formerly leader of Newcastle Council and head of the Labour Local Government network which gave him a lot of influence but he was ironically bought down after getting de-selected by his local ward party.

I don't know North-East Labour politics well enough to know what will actually happen- but it does seem strange to group Durham in with this- will be fun to watch.

It'll be Kim McGuinness if we have any sense.

[Wiswylfen]

Two of our leading ‘liberal centrist’ commentators seem to believe that David Miliband losing the 2010 Labour leadership contest caused Trump to be elected president.

https://twitter.com/lbc/status/1662133999811145729?s=61&t=I1DE8_cg7gmZrchgst...

To be fair, you could make a case that a different candidate winning the Labour leadership with all its knock-on effects would have changed the result of the 2016 presidential election.

[Wiswylfen]

I mean, could you? How exactly??

Campbell went on to say he didn't *really* believe all this anyway, so not sure what the fuss is about.

In the same way that any significant event not happening or happening differently would have consequences down the line, not an argument specific to the 2010 Labour leadership contest.

[Wiswylfen]

Surprising, and frankly bizarre decision.

https://labourlist.org/2023/06/metro-mayor-jamie-driscoll-north-tyne-north-east-left-nec-ban/

Not really--it was widely seen as a possibility after the Ken Loach event. But Twitter is full of people who think this has been done for Nick Forbes who are outraged. The letter is obviously untrue though. Anyone could win it for Labour next year.

[Wiswylfen]

If its a "fix" for anyone, it isn't likely to be Nick Forbes.

That’s the point, yes. The right’s candidate is Kim McGuinness—and this isn’t some sort of secret—but the people purporting to ‘explain’ North East Labour politics to the outraged outsiders in reality know so little that they think it’s going to be Nick Forbes.

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Congratulations to Kim McGuinness for winning 74% of the vote on a 50% turnout, with only 0.1% of ballots spoilt! She'll be an excellent Labour candidate.

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Duffield going over to the Tories has been rumoured several times now, but still absolutely nothing.

It has been pointed out that aside from *that* issue, she agrees with them on relatively little and is not likely to be happy there. Maybe the other rumour - that she will retire shortly before the GE - has more chance of happening now after Labour's shift on trans matters.

In Duffield's own words, the only issues she has with them--and the only thing stopping her from going over to them--are Brexit and immigration.

[Wiswylfen]

Apart from neither of those exactly being trivial issues, another example of her recently taking a not terribly Tory position was posted just upthread. I find her just as exasperating as most Labour people do, but let's stick to the facts here.

Those are the facts. You are partially correct in that those are not trivial issues to Duffield (hence the lack of a defection), but that is more an indictment of her progressive, Open Labour background than anything else.

[Wiswylfen]

Labour shift on trans rights is misguided attempt to win back red wall, says MP: ‘It’s patronising’

The MP – who represents a red-wall constituency – says they’ve only ever had one person in their constituency raise “gender critical” talking points on the doorsteps – but they have had hundreds of emails and exchanges with those who are worried about the direction of trans rights in the UK.

Many are older people who have trans children or grandchildren who are concerned about how anti-trans talking points could jeopardise their family’s health and happiness.

“People up north just don’t give a s**t about any of this, so when I’m in London and I hear all this stuff about how people up north are so socially conservative and they’re so worried about these things, I’m like: no, they’re really not.

“They’re worried about how they’re going to pay their mortgage this month. They’re worried about air pollution and the climate crisis. They’re worried about animal rights and whether or not they can get a doctor’s appointment.”

Far from being a working-class issue, the MP suggests that “gender-critical” talking points are primarily coming from middle-class professionals in cities like London, Cambridge and Canterbury.

“They’re somehow ventriloquising people up north as a sort of a cover – but that’s your views, not ours. It’s patronising.”

The MP adds: “I think Labour thinks by doing this Julia Hartley-Brewer will leave us alone and stop asking people if women have penises and we can start talking about the NHS instead – but they’re not going to stop asking that.”

[Wiswylfen]

The point they and you miss, is that it really isn't about that at all. It is far *far* more about reducing the hostility to the party from loud and influential opinion formers.

And yes, this is at least *a* primary motivation with several of Starmer's changes.

Well, I quoted that specifically for the accurate description of where the hatred of trans people actually lies in reality, but given that we know for a fact that hilariously incorrect perceptions of the so-called 'red wall' and what it believes are widespread in the party, I am doubtful that that has not had a significant part to play in the new policy.

edit: And as you will see in that quote and the article, the MP does think that "reducing the hostility to the party from loud and influential opinion formers" is also a motivation (and that it won't work: which is true).

[Wiswylfen]

If Starmer and Reeves tackled the real issue of land reform and insisted on taxing that form of wealth rather than income, I'd be sympathetic. I think I speak for many progressives when I say I have no issue with a CEO who gets up early in the morning not being overtaxed but I do have issue with property developers, speculators and lords using sitting capital to deform markets. The real inequality in Britain is land-based. Weirdly enough Theresa May was the only to be honest about that, because she is fundamentally more of a ln honest person. But the real elites at the Telegraph and co that Reeves sucks up to now just labelled it a "dementia tax" and the spin was enough to force a humiliation.

They won't because they want to be part of the toff elite, not deconstruct it. And luckily they have enablers on line giving convaluted explanations for them.

A sad opportunity missed unless the Labour opposition immediately convert to a Georgist platform. A couple of planning permission relaxations won't solve real wealth inequality in a society like the UK where very few people own a huge amount of land.

We should expropriate the Percy family.

[Wiswylfen]

The dark art of toadying to Starmer

The self-proclaimed Key to Canterbury is mad about not getting anything. Hope McFadden enjoys this one after all the toadying to Duffield he's done!

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I have been approached about standing for a role on the CLP exec. Does anyone with any experience of such matters have any advice?

[Wiswylfen]

‘Blairites’ don’t exist anymore beyond (a) a handful of pathetic, bitter MPs who still bear grudges over Gordon Brown and (b) LARPers on Twitter with a tendency to support Andrew Tate.

[Wiswylfen]

‘Blairites’ don’t exist anymore beyond (a) a handful of pathetic, bitter MPs who still bear grudges over Gordon Brown and (b) LARPers on Twitter with a tendency to support Andrew Tate.

You’ve never met a Labour Party staffer have you?

As I said, LARPers. They should watch less The Thick of It and stop harassing children who ‘stan’ Gordon Brown online!

[Wiswylfen]

At conference. Went for the first time last year after actually getting involved in Labour politics and I’m now heading back this year.

[Wiswylfen]

The new boundaries in urban Northumberland (because I don't know anything about what's going to happen in North Northumberland) and what they mean for Labour:

Cramlington and Killingworth would have been very narrow in 2019; who would have won it is up for debate and different notionals have different winners. Nevertheless, Labour will win it easily at the next election. The seat includes the new towns of Cramlington and Killingworth and the surrounding ex-pit villages. The new towns, particularly their more prosperous elements, will have leaned Conservative at the last election but even in that disastrous defeat the pit villages (affluent housing developments aside) will have been staunchly Labour.

The selection will be between Emma Foody, Alexander Hay, and possibly Joe Kirwin. Foody is of some importance in the Co-op Party and it is also worth mentioning that if selected she will form one half of a parliamentary couple with Alex Norris; Hay is a Newcastle councillor and on the cabinet; Kirwin is a North Tyneside councillor and it is unclear whether or not he will actually go for the selection (he'll make it into Parliament one day nevertheless).

Newcastle upon Tyne West (which I refuse to call by the ridiculous name the Boundary Commission gave it) consists of the city centre (contributing barely any electors and no reason to throw all naming conventions out the window), West End, and outer west. Chi Nishikata, currently MP for Newcastle upon Tyne Central, will be the Labour candidate. Obviously this is safely Labour.

Newcastle upon Tyne North finally unites the city's middle-class suburbs (not to say there aren't some bits that aren't, but they're firmly in the minority) in one seat. Labour will win it at the next election but this seat offers a long-term Lib Dem target and they would have won it in 2010 had it been around then. Catherine McKinnell, currently MP for Newcastle upon Tyne North (a significantly different seat in terms of boundaries, though of course nowhere close to the infamous 1983 Newcastle Central), will be the Labour candidate.

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend would have been a bit difficult, with two MPs having a claim to it and Mary Glindon's base being in the Wallsend part of her seat, but then what happened to Nick Brown happened and so Mary Glindon will be the Labour candidate. This is generally very working-class (Walker is the ward with the highest % of social housing in England outside London), though with some more middle-class developments, and whatever nonsense some of you reading this may have heard about realignments votes accordingly.

Tynemouth loses Shiremoor, Backworth, and the new developments that were supposed to solidify Conservative control locally (check out the North Tyneside Council Wikipedia article for how that turned out) but in the end proved surprisingly alright for us, and gains Riverside ward up to the A19, reuniting all of North Shields in a single seat. The core of this seat has remained basically the same since 1950, despite adjustments on its western border.

Labour won it in 1945 (though back then it didn't include Whitley Bay and Monkseaton) but never again until 1997, when Alan Campbell won it and has held it ever since. There was some worry Labour might lose it in 2010 but, more than the favourable boundary changes, Tory infighting and the fact Wendy Morton (now MP for Aldridge-Brownhills) was an utterly useless candidate (no, really, absolutely horrendous) saw him safely home. Alan Campbell, who in addition to being MP for Tynemouth is also the party's Chief Whip, will stand again.

[Wiswylfen]

Is Susan Dungworth not trying again for selection in Cramlington & Killingworth?

No. Susan Dungworth has been selected as the Labour candidate for Northumbria PCC (which she will, of course, win). I think she’s backing Emma Foody (who is probably going to win the selection when it happens) for Cramlington and Killingworth but don’t quote me on that.

[Wiswylfen]

I missed Blyth and Ashington.

The new seat takes in the most working-class (and therefore favourable to Labour) parts of the existing Wansbeck and Blyth Valley seats. The two eponymous towns, again despite the realignment narrative*, will have voted Labour in 2019. Blyth Valley, of course, fell to the Conservatives very early on election night (which I remember decently well, having gone to bed afterwards because I wasn't going to stay up for the massacre); Wansbeck was narrowly held for Labour by Ian Lavery, who unfortunately will be the party's candidate at the next election.

Perhaps I will be allowed a little speculation as to future candidates once Ian Lavery stands down. There are quite a few possibilities. From Ashington: Ian Lavery's son and Ashington town councillor Liam Lavery (no, the blackface one is Ian Jr.); Ashington town councillor Sophie Robinson, who has a decent chance of being Labour's first trans MP; and county councillor Caroline Ball. From Bedlington: Rebecca Wilczek, county councillor. From Blyth: Anna Watson, another councillor. And from outside the constituency: Scott Dickinson, leader of the Labour group on Northumberland County Council and councillor for Druridge Bay; and God knows how many people who once visited Newbiggin when they were 5 or whatever such nonsense.

*2021 local election results should not be taken to reflect much more than the competence of Blyth Valley Conservatives and the incompetence of Blyth Valley Labour (Susan Dungworth** is competent but the rest are pretty bad).
**Family rivalries (she was the second wife of the late Mike Dungworth, whose first wife subsequently became my father's stepmother) aside.

[Wiswylfen]

Its a possibility, but not sure about the timescale.

Not impossible the Greens might make significant gains if a Labour government really does alienate much of its base in government (think of the LibDems at the 2005 GE)

They're not our base; they're nice-to-haves.