Texas, in terms of delegates.
In January, I thought the race would be over by Super Tuesday. Today, I expect the race to over sometime after the PR Primary. I expect the lead in elected delegates excluding MI/FL to change hands at least once by the convention. I could see Clinton holding for a few weeks and Obama gaining it back.
Obama's got something like a 162 lead in elected delegates at the moment.
Unless Clinton wins 59% of the delegates in March, April, and May, she does not take the lead in pledged delegates. And considering the existence of states where Obama
will win (Democrats Abroad, Wyoming, Mississippi, Oregon), that means that Clinton would have to pull off 60% consistently in TX/OH/PA & the May states. That isn't going to happen. (Hillary's best result so far, apart from Arkansas, is her 57% in NY. She won't be outperforming that number consistently).
