Candidates Close in North Carolina

[Erc]

A bit surprised, but if true, perhaps an explanation.   Many people from the northeast especially New York and New Jersey have moved down to NC, specifically the Charlotte and Raleigh areas.  Perhaps all those from NY & NJ moving down to NC has pushed it more Democratic than originally thought, but it was a bit obscured in 2004 as the 9/11 Bush bounce that was seen in suburban NYC was also seen in the voting of the transplanted New Yorkers down in NC, and they voted Republican at a higher rate than they otherwise would have due to it.  Now its a theory and likely a stretch, but something to ponder, especially if future NC polling supports this one.

It's a stretch.  NC voted in much the same way it did in 2004 as it did in 2000, after accounting for a slight (2%ish) Edwards boost.

A lot of places are polling the same way, and we'll get the true picture (one way or the other) once both parties have picked nominees.

[Erc]

I'll agree that the Research Triangle effect is something to be cognizant of...but it's not going to make enough of a difference to swing the state unless the national race is enough of a blowout where it doesn't matter.

As for the "NYC Bush Bounce" in NC...it makes some sense, but it's going to be (at best) a second-order effect--a slight swing in a relatively small segment of the population isn't going to have an effect larger than a couple tenths of a percentage point in the statewide result.  Whatever effect was present was mostly (or, more likely, completely) eliminated by a local 'Edwards bounce' which also won't be present in 2008 unless Edwards wins the nomination.

[Erc]

I'll agree that the Research Triangle effect is something to be cognizant of...but it's not going to make enough of a difference to swing the state unless the national race is enough of a blowout where it doesn't matter.

As for the "NYC Bush Bounce" in NC...it makes some sense, but it's going to be (at best) a second-order effect--a slight swing in a relatively small segment of the population isn't going to have an effect larger than a couple tenths of a percentage point in the statewide result.  Whatever effect was present was mostly (or, more likely, completely) eliminated by a local 'Edwards bounce' which also won't be present in 2008 unless Edwards wins the nomination.

In 2000 NC was about 13 points more GOP than nationally, in 04 it was just under 10 points more GOP than nationally.  Even with Edwards out of the picture I was originally thinking there would be a small Dem trend in NC, a couple points in part due to the high number of NY metro area transplants moving down there. I was thinking that NC would be 7-7.5 or so points more GOP than nationally in 08 (closer obviously with Edwards).  But if the Bush 9/11 transplant bump did occur, the state may have been more along the lines of 8-8.5 points more GOP than nationally, which could put it in the 4-5 point more GOP than nationally in 08 range.  Compare this result, with what most the national Rudy-Clinton numbers are and you are in that 4-5 more GOP than nationally range. 

All else considered, I'll agree with you that there should be some trend towards the Democrats (if only marginal).  However, I can't agree with you that it was obscured by the 9/11 effect:  Even Staten Island even only shifted about 9 points because of it.    That's a lot, but even if the NYC transplants were affected by 9 points, the recent NYC transplants are a small fraction of the population (by no means could they be 10% of the population, unless I'm horribly mistaken).  So, unless you're saying that recent NYC transplants were affected more by 9/11 than those living on Staten Island, or that they're more than 10% of the NC voting population--the '9/11 bounce' effect definitely could not be in the 1.5-2% range that you claim, and is more likely to be around .1-.2%--not enough to cause an additional swing to the Democrats in '08.

There are plenty of other reasons that NC could swing, of course--they liked Bush more than they like the current crop of candidates, and the plain old Research Triangle effect, to name just two.

[Erc]

Aha...multiply my trend figures by 2 to make them consistent with yours.  Closer, but we're still off by an order of magnitude.

In any event, regardless of whether the effect we're discussing is .15% or 1.5%, who the candidates are and how they play in NC relative to the rest of the country will likely overshadow these relatively small effects.  So, we'll see how things look in the summer.