Why is this happening?

[Erc]

Another plausible answer is: we put so much stock into forecasts like Nate Silver's that there's little incentive to run quality polls, so we only get the sort of terrible polls that give a forecast like this.

Stop panicking, this isn't even going to be close.  (Though it will still be closer than it should be; anything less than a 20-point defeat is still a national embarrassment.)  And if you don't believe me, well you only have to wait 131 hours.

[Erc]

Another plausible answer is: we put so much stock into forecasts like Nate Silver's that there's little incentive to run quality polls, so we only get the sort of terrible polls that give a forecast like this.

Stop panicking, this isn't even going to be close.  (Though it will still be closer than it should be; anything less than a 20-point defeat is still a national embarrassment.)  And if you don't believe me, well you only have to wait 131 hours.

Stop spreading this myth about bad polls affecting 538. If you look at "Projected vote share for Nov. 8" it is not that different from other models. Right now it is, because 538 is much more trend-sensitive. Many of Upshots averages includes polls from 2-4 weeks ago. But generally, in a "balance" when race is stable, they don't differ much. Those junky polls almost doesn't matter.

The chances differ though considerably, even when the race is in a "balance". It depends on 538's strong correlation assumption and uncertainty-of-undecideres assumptions. Many other models don't see any difference at all between 50-47 for Obama and 46-43 for Clinton. 538's model does.

My point is that the current "trend" to Trump is likely completely artificial (as were, in all likelihood, some of the earlier big swings to Clinton).

Feel free to mock me after election day if Clinton wins by less than 5 points.

[Erc]

Not a single comment about what has led to Trump's popularity. Just a lot of blaming and finger-pointing, especially about Hillary. I suppose that answers my question.

In the most generous possible explanation, it's clear our educational system has some massive failings.

[Erc]

What did we do to deserve a 33+% chance of a Trump presidency?

Why do we deserve a 67% chance of a corrupt criminal?

If you think she is that, then you should change your number to 100% because Trump is a corrupt criminal himself. Or I suppose we can keep it at 67% and just ignore everything that's come out about Trump the past 16+ months.

How is Trump a criminal?

Illegal housing violations, equal employment violations, tax evasion, bribery, racketeering, sexual assault, and the list goes on?