What if the Republicans won the Spanish Civil War?

[Erc]

Well, it obviously depends on how the Republicans win.

If the Republican trend towards Communism continues, you could have either:

A) A Stalinist Puppet State

B) A crazy revolutionary-anarchist state that even Stalin's lost control over.

If, as the Republicans do better, they regain sanity, then you just have a hard-left state, probably too far out of the clutches of Stalin to be in his grasp (I defer to Lewis Trondheim on this question).

Then there's the possibility of Anglo-French intervention, but that opens up a completely different can of worms which we probably shouldn't go into.

Come 1940...

The Stalinist puppet state would probably not declare war on Germany (under pressure from Stalin).

The anarchist state would probably declare war on Germany instantly, much to the embarassment of France and England.  Assuming they even stayed intact until June of 1940, Hitler sends in a couple of Panzer Divisions and crushes the Anarchists (who are presumably so disorganized, hated, and war-weary at this point that Hitler would have little trouble installing Franco [or, even better, re-install Alfonso XIII or his son]).

The Social Democrat state would either be too war-weary to think about declaring war on Germany--and if they did, I bet that a strong show of force and the fall of France would force them to withdraw from the war.  Hitler's generally stupid, but I still don't think he'd want to get involved in another Peninsular War if he doesn't need to.  Spain probably reenters the war in '44 (perhaps providing a compromise springboard for re-entry into Europe?).


In the first and third scenarios, Hitler will have to deal with Spain at some point...whether in '41 (in the first), or in '40/'44 (in the third).  Spain, despite its immense size and mountainous terrain, would not be too much of a challenge for the German Army in '40 or '41 (if Hitler decides to knock out Spain as part of the greater Southern European Cleanup, which could only delay Barbarossa more).  Holding it is a different story...whether it would prove a bigger thorn than Yugoslavia...and what role it plays in the Allies' return to Europe--are questions for a later day.