Electoral College Tie (user search)
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Author Topic: Electoral College Tie  (Read 843 times)
Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« on: July 19, 2016, 12:34:38 PM »

Always an unlikely scenario, but considering Trump's uphill road, one worth considering.  If Clinton wins CO, PA, and VA, for example, the best Trump can do is the narrow road to a tie via NH/NV.

Setting aside elector / party-switching shenanigans for the moment, let's consider how a pure party-line vote in the House would be expected to go.  Remember that each state gets one vote.

Obviously, given the Republicans' advantage in the House (and that the Republicans have a lot of Plains/Mountain West states in their back pockets), Trump is heavily favored there.  Going by Cook's ratings, they already have 23 of the required 26 states locked down; barring a Democratic wave (which is unlikely in the event of a EC tie), they have these states:



(The states with 30% shading are those where a single representative abstaining or switching could cause the state to deadlock; in Utah, this would require Mia Love to lose, as well.)

They'd need three more states to hit 26.  Obvious candidates are:

Florida
: they'd need to win a single competitive race, with FL-02 or FL-07 likely possibilities.
Alaska: hold the single seat here.
Montana: hold the single seat here.
Virginia: win a single competitive race; VA-05 or VA-10 would do the trick.

Michigan and Arizona are also quite doable, and Wisconsin and Colorado are also within reach.  Iowa and Nevada are a bit of a stretch, but by that point they'd have a clear majority.

TL;DR: If it goes to the House, Republicans will have a majority of states unless there's a huge disconnect between Presidential and Congressional voting.

Of course, the big question is, would it come down to a party-line vote?  Could a faithless elector put a third option on the table that could attract enough Republican support to force multiple ballots? If so, who?  If it's not a mass movement, are there enough individual House members with the power to deadlock a state and enough antipathy for Trump to do it?  The ones that can are shaded light blue above (plus AK, MT, AZ, WI, CO, NV, & IA, should they win those).

And, entering the realm of fantasy, how about a Veep-like scenario where the House deliberately deadlocks so that Pence gets to act as President?  This assumes, of course, that the Republicans keep the Senate; if they don't I can't imagine the House deliberately throwing the acting Presidency to Kaine / Warren / whomever.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2016, 11:26:20 PM »

Could easily happen

Clinton/? 47% / 269 EV
Trump/Pence 46% / 269 EV
Johnson/Weld 6% / 0 EV

Yep; or alternatively trade Wisconsin for both Nevada and New Hampshire. (These all seem like long shots at this point, but so does any Trump victory).
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2016, 12:15:40 AM »
« Edited: July 20, 2016, 12:18:34 AM by Erc »



Trading PA/VA for FL/NH from my quoted scenario above; fits the bill for certain definitions of "plausible."  Nevada and Virginia seem out of place for this 2016 map that looks more like a bad 2004 prediction.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2016, 04:48:32 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2016, 05:05:52 PM by Erc »

As for the original topic, I don't even want to think about the chaos that would erupt if this election went to the House of Representatives. I think there's enough #NeverTrump support in the House that nobody would gain an electoral majority even there and this election would go into triple overtime.

I may at some point do a closer analysis of the individual House members, but the most likely targets for #NeverTrump would be:

Michigan: Justin Amash is a committed anti-Trumper, and Bill Huizenga and Fred Upton could be convinced.

Florida: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and Carlos Curbelo both seem to be committed anti-Trumpers, with David Jolly and Mario Diaz-Balart possibly receptive, as well.  

Arizona: Martha McSally would be the likely candidate here (or the Democrats could simply defeat her).

Nebraska: Jeff Fortenberry is a likely target.

Idaho: Mark Simpson, potentially.

What's unclear is whether the various other House members who currently support Trump in a Trump vs. Hillary battle could be convinced to support a third option if one presented itself (or to go for infinite deadlock and Mike Pence, à la Veep, if such an option is even constitutional).

If there are no faithless electors, and it comes down to Trump, Hillary, or deadlock to Pence, a difficult optics question in some states may be the fact that #NeverTrumpers might have to vote for Hillary to force a deadlock, which they may not be able to bring themselves to do.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,823
Slovenia


« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2016, 05:54:50 PM »

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-7-levels-of-trump-support-in-congress/

538 has a fun tool that one can use for these purposes, as well.
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