Is Iraq about to turn into Iran 2.0?

[Erc]

Why Iraq won't turn into Iraq 2.0:

Iran won't have it.

If the Shi'ite majority imposes a Shi'ite Theocracy on Iraq, they'll lose the support of the Sunnis (not that they have that at the moment), and, more importantly, the Kurds.

The Kurdo-Shi'ite 'Unholy Alliance' is what is holding the country together at this point.  They're the army, the police force, etc.  They keep the Sunnis in line.  If the Kurds pull out, the Shi'ites won't be able to control the northern half of the country.  The insurgency would turn into a full-scale civil war, Kurdistan declaring independence (the Sunnis wouldn't like that either, but they have a major problem on their southern flank at this point).

The Shias wouldn't be able to hold the country together without overt Iranian intervention (which we would not have)...and so Kurdistan becomes independent.  And you have a nice little rebellion on your hands in Kurdistan Irredenta over in Iran...