Should Iraq be split up?

[Erc]

To go along with what the other posters had said, a federalist system needs to be had.  However, considering that the upcoming elections for a Constituent Assembly (ie one drafting the Constitution) is being held on an entirely popular-vote basis, the Shias will dominate the Assembly by force of numbers.  And if the Sunnis continue their little insurgency in Mosul, Talabani & Barzani up north will continue to see the Sunnis as their greatest enemy, and may vote with the Shias (continuing the Unholy Alliance of Kurds and Shias).

Of course, the Sunnis know they're going to be outvoted so they have little faith in the democratic system...leading to more problems and more insurgency (which just angers the Kurds and Shias more).  Note that the recent character of the insurgency has been much more directed at Shias (in the south) and Kurds (in Mosul--where the police force, one would assume, is overwhelmingly Kurdish).

The root cause of this problem is that we essentially sold out to the Shias (to stop Sadr and get the support of Sistani).  While, in the circumstances, it was the right thing to do (although the situation in the Sunni Triangle may have been improved somewhat, losing the support of the Shia areas would have been much worse)--it's going to cause major problems.

Of course, people won't be voting along completely ethnic/religious lines come January 30 (a lot will, but not all), so the Shias will need some support from key actors:  namely Allawi (who won't be too hard to get) and the Kurds--Talabani and Barzani.  Remember that the Kurds are used to a heck of a lot of autonomy (they've been de facto independent since '92) so they are likely to support a Federalist system.  However, if one side or the other gets a significant majority of the Kurdish vote, the loser may take a weird position to undermine the other [heck, Barzani allied with Saddam in '96 when Talabani was doing well].  In short, it's likely that the Shias will get enough support (due to conflicting agendas elsewhere) to get their agenda through the Constitution.

The instant American troops leave (or are severely dwindled), the Sunnis will launch a major uprising.  The Kurds and Shias won't like this, and the Unholy Alliance will march on Baghdad, and they won't be afraid of little things like civilian casualties.  Behold the real de-Baathification.

Iraq will stay together in the end, if only because the Kurds and Shias, ironically enough, can't afford it not to.