The Delegate Fight: 2012

[Erc]

Early February Caucuses

Note that, since Nevada is allowed to go early by RNC rules, and none of the other contests actually award delegates, none of the states below suffer delegate penalties.

Missouri holds a Primary on February 7.  As it assigns no delegates (the delegate-selection process does not begin until the March 17 caucuses), it is not discussed below.

Nevada: February 4

Overview
28 Delegates (1.22% of total)
Caucus
At-Large Proportional (3.57% cutoff)

Nevada is holding a caucus---however, unlike in previous years, the final slate of delegates elected by the State Convention in May must reflect the results of the Presidential Preference Straw Poll taken at the caucus.  As this is a relatively new development, the exact details of how it must be proportional (i.e. rounding) have yet to be decided (and may be fought over at the convention)---however, it does appear that the cutoff to receive any delegates is 1/28th of the total vote, or 3.57%.  

RNC Members
The 3 RNC Member delegates are bound by this process as well, and are not free to vote their conscience, at least on the first ballot.

Preliminary Results (as of 2/5)
Romney - 14
Gingrich - 6
Paul - 5
Santorum - 3

The Nevada GOP says that delegate allocations will be rounded to the nearest whole number; as, in this case, this results in a total of 28 delegates, there are no rounding ambiguities here.

It would appear that Paulistas have hijacked the Clark County convention, and will likely control the State Convention (May 5-6).  Although they can handpick the delegation, they will still be bound as above on the first ballot.  They may attempt to change the rules, but the RNC does not generally recognize rules changes made after October 1, 2011.

Colorado:  February 7, 2012

Overview
36 Delegates (1.57% of total)
Caucus / Convention
12 At-Large
22 by CD
3 RNC Members

Colorado has a typical Caucus/Convention setup, in the same vein as Iowa.  Precinct caucuses elect delegates to County Assemblies, as well as hold a Presidential Preference Straw Poll.  It is the former that actually matter; they, in turn, elect delegates to the District Conventions and the State Convention.  The District Conventions (March 29 - April 13) choose the 21 CD delegates, while the State Convention (April 14) chooses the 12 At-Large Delegates.

RNC Members
Ryan Call
Mark Hillman
Lilly Nunez

Preliminary Results (as of 2/9)
Santorum - 17
Romney - 12
Gingrich - 2
Paul - 2

This does not account for the usual host of Iowa-style caucus caveats.  Additionally, the Colorado GOP has not released results by precinct, so the CD allocations are sheer guesswork, especially in the counties surrounding Denver.

Minnesota:  February 7, 2012

Overview
40 Delegates (1.75% of total)
Caucus / Convention
13 At-Large
24 by CD
3 RNC Members

Minnesota has a typical Caucus/Convention setup, in the same vein as Iowa.  Precinct Caucuses elect delegates to BPOU Conventions, as well as hold a Presidential Preference Straw Poll.  It is the former that actually matter; these BPOU (Basic Political Organization Unit---a County, State House District, or State Senate District) Conventions (to be held by March 31) in turn elect delegates to the District Conventions and the State Convention.   The District Conventions (March 31 - April 21) choose the 24 CD delegates, while the State Convention (May 4 - 5) chooses the 13 At-Large delegates.

RNC Members
Tony Sutton
Jeff Johnson - Gingrich
Pat Anderson

Preliminary Results (as of 3/31)
Santorum - 28
Paul - 5
Romney - 4

Discussion can be found here and in preceding posts.  Basically, Santorum won majorities in enough precincts so that by the time of the state convention he has a majority statewide and in 4 of the 8 congressional districts.  In the 4 other districts, Romney, Paul, and Santorum all did well enough to pick up a delegate apiece.  This does not account for other rounding errors, possible domination of BPOU conventions by a single candidate, the exact distribution of BPOU delegates per precinct, or any Paul 'stealth' support.  It does reflect the new CD boundaries, issued on 2/21.

CD 7 has held its convention, electing the first delegates to Tampa from MN (apart from RNC members).  2 Santorum delegates and 1 Paul delegate were elected; I had projected Santorum to win all three.

Maine:  January 28-February 11, 2012

Overview
24 Delegates (1.05% of total)
Caucus / Convention
15 At-Large
6 by CD
3 RNC Members

Maine has a traditional Caucus/Convention setup, though with one fewer tier than most other states.  Municipal Caucuses, held throughout the week, elect delegates to the State Convention directly.  Each municipality is entitled to a number of delegates in proportion to its vote for Paul LePage in 2010.  A Presidential Preference Straw Poll is also held, with the results announced on February 11, but this is non-binding.  

Maine is announcing the results of the straw poll on February 11th---however, not all towns in Maine will have caucused by that point.  This is especially true of many locations in Hancock County, as well as in Rome in Kennebec County.  There may be additional stragglers who have been late to organize.  The last announced caucus is in Castine on March 3rd; all caucuses must take place by March 20th.

The State Convention (May 5 - 6) elects the 15 At-Large delegates, while the delegates at the State Convention from each CD separately caucus and choose their 3 delegates each.

RNC Members
Charlie Webster
Rick Bennett - Romney
Jan Staples - Romney

Preliminary Results (as of 2/11)
Romney - 11
Paul - 7
Santorum - 3

Discussion can be found here.  Romney did very well downstate, and I project him to get a majority at the CD1 caucus.  As usual, this does not account for rounding errors or "Stealth Paul" effects.

[Erc]

Here's an intriguing bit that might just matter. Florida's rules call for it to be statewide WTA only if they get sanctioned, so they'd revert to the statewide + CD rule if they are not.  If the winner gets 14 or fewer of the 27 CD's and the second place finisher gets the other 13 or more, then a reversion to being unsanctioned results in a net improvement in the delegate totals for the second place finisher.  Now unless the statewide winner has his vote concentrated in only a few CDs this likely won't matter much, but if every delegate counts, it could.

If Santorum drops out after a Newt win tonight, it looks like Florida will be a close battle.

Aren't they supposed to be proportional because they're an early state?

I think the case is that if they had gone when they were supposed to, they would be sanctioned if they didn't apportion some of the delegates by CD, but since they are already being sanctioned for going early, they don't face a second sanction for assigning them by statewide WTA.

Tinfoil hat speculation now...what if the RNC decides in the upcoming week to strip FL of all delegates?  I don't think such a thing is logistically possible, but as a last-ditch alternative to a Gingrich knockout punch there?   Of course, it would probably play worse than an embarassing loss anyway.

[Erc]

The 'Uncommitted' delegates are indeed very much like the Democratic superdelegates, except there are far fewer of them, fewer than 150 in total (there's only 3 per state and many states, like Nevada, do pledge them to the winner of their state's primary).  While they certainly might make a difference if this actually goes to the convention, they aren't nearly as large of a factor as they could have been on the Democratic side in 2008.

[Erc]

A lot of these "super-delegates" have to pledge themselves to the winner of the state primary/caucus, though if there is indeed a brokered convention, they're presumably allowed to vote for whoever they want on the second ballot.

None of the "superdelegates" from NH, SC, FL, AZ, and MI will have voting privileges due to RNC sanctions.

The "superdelegates" from DE, GA, KS, NJ, and NV are bound by the vote in their state, effectively acting like regular pledged delegates. (Demconwatch says the same about VT & MO, but I think this is outdated information from 2008).

This means that there are 46 states and jurisdictions (remembering the insular territories & DC) with 3 "superdelegates" a piece, plus Huntsman's two delegates from NH, for a total of 140 "superdelegates," or 6.12% of the total number of delegates.

This is a sizeable chunk (comparable to Texas' 152 delegates), but it's unlikely that they'll break so overwhelmingly for one candidate or another to make a difference.

[Erc]

well these GOP superdelegates are enough to give the current delegate lead to Romney
http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

Lets face it, the superdelegates will go overwhelmingly for Romney given a choice. If this thing is close, they could make the difference

In general, I will not be counting superdelegates until their states actually vote (sometimes they do something crazy and decide to respect the will of the people).  If I did include them, you are correct, Romney would have the lead right now, as he has 16 endorsements to 1 apiece for Santorum and Gingrich.  Of course, there are still 122 who haven't endorsed anyone.

Information about Maine's caucuses has been updated, many thanks to CARLHAYDEN for the clarifications.  Apparently, some towns caucus as soon as this Saturday, while some caucus as late as March 2nd!  The results of the straw poll will not wait for these stragglers, and will be announced regardless on February 11.

[Erc]

Mitt Romney wins all 50 of Florida's delegates with his win in the state.

As was pointed out earlier, if Florida's full delegations is seated, it won't be WTA statewide, but WTA by jurisdiction (by CD and statewide), so Gingrich would receive some delegates.  Note that the new 2012 Florida map doesn't appear to be done yet, which would immensely complicate the process.

At some point, I'll try to see what the exact counts would be without penalty, but it seems that Gingrich couldn't have possibly won more than 5 CD's (all in or near the Panhandle), which would result in a breakdown of 89 Romney - 10 Gingrich.

[Erc]

According to CNN through last night's Florida contest, the delegate count stands at Mitt Romney 84, Newt Gingrich 27, Ron Paul 10, Rick Santorum 8.  If these numbers are correct, Mitt Romney is roughly 7.5% of the way to the required 1,144 delegates.  Can you confirm these numbers, Erc, or do you show something different?

My current count is Romney 69, Gingrich 23, Santorum 11, Paul 8.

Why the discrepancies?

1)  Superdelegates.  As stated before, I don't like to include these guys in my count before their state has voted, but it's perfectly legit to do so if you want.  CNN has 19 superdelegates for Romney and 2 for Gingrich which I do not currently have in my count.

2) Iowa.  Iowa doesn't actually select any delegates until June, after a long round of conventions.  My estimates and CNN's estimates differ, as explained earlier in the thread.  They have a 7 Romney - 7 Santorum - 7 Paul - 2 Gingrich - 2 Uncommitted (ex-Perry) split, whereas I think a 10 Romney - 10 Santorum - 5 Paul split is slightly closer to reality.

Taking into account both of these, you recover the CNN count (up to a single Romney delegate, I probably lost a superdelegate in CNN's count someplace)

[Erc]

Finally decided to cave and am now including a count of all the other superdelegate endorsements (apart from Kim Lehman's, who is already there) on the front page, below the Totals.

[Erc]

Arizona: February 28

Overview
29 Delegates (1.27% of total)
Primary
Winner-Take-All

All 29 delegates in Arizona are assigned to the statewide winner.

Arizona violated RNC rules by holding its primary before the first Tuesday in March, and thus lost half of its delegates.  It is possible these may may be restored later by the RNC, in which case the Arizona Primary would be assigning 58 delegates (all still At-Large WTA).  

Since Arizona is assigning its delegates as Winner-Take-All, it is also violating RNC rules forbidding such contests before April.  The RNC may choose to again penalize Arizona, but this seems very unlikely.

RNC Members

In the event sanctions are lifted on Arizona, its RNC members are bound to the winner of the primary, and are included in the 58 At-Large delegates noted above.

Preliminary Results (as of 2/28)

Romney won the state and all 29 delegates.  If sanctions were removed, he would get 55 delegates.

Michigan: February 28

Overview
30 Delegates (1.31% of total)
Primary
28 by CD (WTA)
2 At-Large

Michigan, by holding its primary before the first Tuesday in March, is violating RNC rules and has been penalized half its delegation.  Although Michigan has been through this song and dance before, they have (at long last) adopted plans to allocate delegates given these penalties.

The winner of each CD will receive 2 delegates.  There are 14 CD's in Michigan, for a total of 28 delegates by CD.

The remaining 2 delegates will be awarded based on the statewide vote.  It has been clarified that these 2 delegates are assigned WTA.

RNC Penalties

In the event RNC penalties are removed, the original delegate allocation plans will presumably be followed.  For reference, they are:

42 of these 56 delegates will be chosen by Congressional District, WTA.  14 delegates will be chosen on a statewide basis, proportionally, with a 15% cutoff.  After rounding to the nearest whole delegate, any additional delegates needed will be given to the statewide winner; if there is a surplus of delegates, they will be removed from the candidate with the fewest votes.  In addition, 3 RNC members will be unpledged.

RNC Members

Due to RNC penalties, the 3 RNC members from Michigan will not have voting privileges at the convention.  If the sanctions are removed, they will act as unpledged delegates.

Bobby Schostak
Saul Anuzis - Romney
Holly June Hughes - Romney

Preliminary Results (as of 2/29)

Romney - 16
Santorum - 14

Romney won the state and wins the 2 WTA delegates.

Each candidate won 7 of the states 14 CDs, splitting the CD delegates 14-14.  Discussion here, breakdown from the AP and the MI GOP.

Should sanctions be removed, the delegate allocation would be:

Romney - 28
Santorum - 28

[Erc]

I had hoped that by this morning I'd be able to have something other than very preliminary results for Nevada....

As it currently stands, with 70.4% of precincts reporting:

Romney 13
Gingrich 6
Paul 5
Santorum 3

It's not clear how Nevada does the rounding...in accord with most other Republican processes, I'm choosing to round each to the nearest whole delegate for each and then giving the 28th delegate to the statewide winner, Romney.

Gingrich, currently at 22.6%, gains a delegate if he reaches 24.1% and loses a delegate if he drops to 20.3%.

Paul, currently at 18.6%, gains a delegate if he reaches 20.4%, and loses a delegate if he drops to 16.6%.

Santorum, currently at 11.1%, gains a delegate if he reaches 13.0% and loses a delegate if he drops to 9.2%.  He will also lose a delegate if there is a net gain of two delegates by other candidates, or if Romney reaches 50% without any other candidates losing delegates.

Romney, currently at 47.6%, gains a delegate if he reaches 50.0%.  If not, he can gain a delegate if the other candidates net lose one delegate.  He loses a delegate if there is a net gain of one delegate among the other candidates.

[Erc]

I can't count.  Romney wins 14 delegates out of Nevada, not 13.  (A 15th delegate would require him getting nigh on 54%, which he isn't going to manage at this point).

This means the count out of Nevada, barring major swings in the last 10% of the precincts, is
Romney - 14
Gingrich - 6
Paul - 5
Santorum - 3

Again, the rounding rules are not firmly established...but most reasonable rounding methods would come up with the same count.  Romney may have enough support at the convention to push through obscene rounding rules (all fractions rounded down, or something) which might net him another 0-2 delegates, but I doubt it'll come to that.

[Erc]

With Santorum now projected to win in Missouri, I estimate he will receive 0 (out of a possible 0) delegates. 

Delegate estimates from MN and CO will be forthcoming pending more results.

[Erc]

Santorum is currently at 46% of the straw poll vote in MN. If he wins a majority of delegates to the state convention, could his delegates make it a winner-take-all state, by changing the delegate allocation rules by a majority vote?

This isn't the Democratic Party, where proportionality is required even at conventions---or even Nevada, where the straw poll is binding on the delegate allocation.  If Santorum supporters do form a majority at the convention, they can elect a completely Santorum slate if they want to.

This is entirely plausible, especially since a lot of Gingrich/Romney support may be winnowed out by rounding errors at the precinct caucuses and the BPOU conventions.

If I can find any detailed data on how many delegates each precinct/BPOU elects, I may be able to find out how likely this is.

[Erc]

Complicating the process in Minnesota is the fact that they have apparently not yet completed redistricting (and might not before the first BPOU conventions).  As Minnesota neither gained nor lost delegates with the census, they may just use the old boundaries.

[Erc]

Very, Very Preliminary Delegate Estimates:

Colorado: 
Santorum - 12
Romney - 11
Gingrich - 6
Paul - 4

Minnesota
Santorum - 18
Paul - 10
Romney - 8
Gingrich - 1

This is pure guesswork at the moment; I'll have a chance to do a more thorough analysis by CD tomorrow for something slightly closer to the truth.  For reasons discussed above, I am probably well underestimating Santorum's performance in Minnesota.

[Erc]

Of note tonight:

Santorum appears to have passed Gingrich in delegates, at least after a first pass of tonight's results.  As a result, I've moved him back to the second column position he held before South Carolina.

Romney has probably lost his delegate majority (even including his declared supers), depending on the final fallout from CO/MN.

[Erc]

I'm not well versed in the nuts and bolts of how the delegates are selected for each state, but it's looking fairly likely that nobody is going to have enough delegates going into the convention. Which wouldn't be such a big deal except that all the modern convention is supposed to be is a giant televised, impeccably choreographed pep rally. With cameras rolling, is it really going to get down and dirty in Tampa this summer? Cause that would be hilarious.

Even with the simply ridiculous nature of this race so far, I would be very surprised if this does end up going to the convention floor, for a variety of reasons.

You obviously need three (or more) candidates with a sizeable number of delegates in order to have a brokered convention, barring a knife-edge outcome.  I sincerely doubt that both Gingrich and Santorum will stay viable; even without dropping out, one or the other will likely fade into irrelevancy at some point in the coming weeks (at this juncture, presumably Gingrich).  If neither does, then you run the risk of Romney running away with a lot of delegates against a divided vote (remember, very few states really award delegates proportionately).  There's a slim possibility that Gingrich could maintain viability (and grab a bunch of delegates on Super Tuesday) as a purely regional candidate (playing well in the South while Santorum doesn't)...though this seems unlikely for a number of reasons.

Of course, there's also the Paulite fantasy where the Paul delegates hold the balance.  In primary states, Paul is likely to receive very few delegates (given his low ceiling, and given how few primary states actually award delegates proportionally).  He has a better chance in caucus states, and not only due to his vaunted 'caucus organization'---caucuses and their ensuing conventions are messy affairs, and if it really does come down to a long slog of a battle between Romney and Santorum (or Gingrich), Paul may pick up delegates in extremely divided conventions (rather than either side ceding any to the 'enemy').  However, unless Paul really does end up controlling any state conventions by entryism or by playing the caucus game really well, it's going to be a modest number of delegates that he wins overall.  And there's always the very likely possibility state conventions not controlled by Paul understandably decide to vote for a slate of delegates excluding Paul supporters.

And if it does come down to mainly a one-on-one slog in the later primaries, very few of the contests are truly proportional, and are likely to give far more delegates to the winner than to the loser.  This makes the sort of evenly-matched delegate-by-delegate Obama-Clinton fight extremely unrealistic.  Of course, it could in the end come out balanced close enough for a combination of Paul, Gingrich (or Santorum) remnants, and superdelegates to make a difference...and boy that would be interesting.

Or, this could be the equivalent of Huckabee's early-mid February successes (a vaguely similar reaction against the presumed nominee), and could fizzle out by the end of the month, with Romney running away with this thing.  Of course, this time around, Romney doesn't have that lovely Super Tuesday delegate lead McCain had, hadn't seen his biggest rival drop out, and didn't do nearly as well as McCain did in his losses.

[Erc]

Example districts in Colorado:
(Large image)

This didn't happen everywhere, but Paul probably won Minnesota and is a lot stronger in Colorado than the straw poll shows.  Caucus states are great for Paul, primaries are black and white straight popular voting (MO didn't count - they have a caucus that actually matters in a month).

Most precincts get 1-2 state delegates for anyone wondering about "100%". Romney got about half the vote but 100% of the delegates at my caucus.

While it's certainly probable that Paul got more delegates to the next level of conventions than his proportion in the straw poll indicates, you'll excuse me if I don't exactly trust the Paul camp's self-reported numbers.

If I can get reliable indications of what actually occurs at the next round of conventions (both in CO/MN and in IA), I will update my numbers accordingly.

[Erc]

Very, Very Preliminary Delegate Estimates:

Colorado: 
Santorum - 12
Romney - 11
Gingrich - 6
Paul - 4

Minnesota
Santorum - 18
Paul - 10
Romney - 8
Gingrich - 1

This is pure guesswork at the moment; I'll have a chance to do a more thorough analysis by CD tomorrow for something slightly closer to the truth.  For reasons discussed above, I am probably well underestimating Santorum's performance in Minnesota.

If the race is still being actively contested I don't see how Romney gets more than 1 or 2 delegates from Minnesota, In fact I bet he gets shut out.  My very very rough guess would be Santorum 20, Paul 17

After a second look at these numbers, these do indeed seem far too generous to the third (and fourth) place finishers in both cases.  Whether Romney will be completely shut out will, in the end, depend exactly on how the final slates of delegates are nominated at the convention.

[Erc]

The conventions could turn out to be really fun. You could see weird things like Paul and Santorum delegates aligning to shut out Mitt Romney (or Newt + Rick in CO).

Oh, they're going to be real fun.  All sorts of lovely tactical voting.

These projections try to stay as agnostic about tactical voting as possible, and assume that, in the lack of a majority for one candidate, delegates are assigned proportionally (or to the top 2/3 finishers in the case of small numbers being elected, as in Iowa or any CD).

[Erc]

More sensible Minnesota projection:

For the 13 At-Large delegates:
Santorum - 6
Paul - 4
Romney - 2
Gingrich - 1

In the 8 congressional districts, Santorum makes a clean sweep in CD's 7 and 8, gets 2 (to Paul's 1) in CD's 1 and 6, while Santorum, Paul, and Romney get 1 a piece in CD's 2,3,4, and 5.  

This yields a total of:

Santorum - 20
Paul - 10
Romney - 6
Gingrich - 1

These are very much subject to change!  Santorum is very close to getting a majority in CD 1 (and probably will), and is reasonably close in CD 6.  Furthermore, I'm doing these apportionments on the old CD lines, whereas the BPOU conventions are held after the final maps come down.  Not to mention tactical voting considerations, etc.

[Erc]

More sensible Colorado projection:

At-Large:
Santorum - 5
Romney - 4
Gingrich - 2
Paul - 1

Congressional Districts:
Santorum wins CD's 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7 with 2 delegates to 1 for Romney.  Romney wins CD 6 by 2 delegates to 1 for Santorum, and Romney, Santorum, and Paul each get a delegate from CD 1.

Totals:
Santorum - 17
Romney - 12
Gingrich - 2
Paul - 2

Note that this was done by just eyeballing the congressional districts---effectively, I'm just guessing that Santorum won CD 7 (in fact, I would bet he didn't).  Plus, the other usual caveats.

[Erc]

Paul's Path Forward

Let's take the Paulites at their word and suppose that they are doing an extremely good job at electing delegates in caucuses---so much so that they actually get majorities at the state convention and elect a slate of Paul-supporting delegates to Tampa.  This is rather far-fetched, for a number of reasons (it's harder to pull this off in high-population precincts, it's unlikely to happen if you simply don't have that many supporters, and it's completely possible this entire narrative is BS), but let's run with it.

This is the sort of thing that only works in Iowa-style caucuses---the ones with multiple rounds of conventions, where the delegates to Tampa are picked months from now at later conventions.  In primaries, Paul doesn't generally have much of a chance (his 23% showing in NH is most likely his peak for the season)---and while he may have a slight turnout advantage in other sorts of caucuses, it's clear he's not going to walk away with those either.

So what's the best Paul can possibly hope for?  That is, what are the Iowa-style caucuses where Paul has a shot of abusing the system and walking away with a lot more delegates than one would expect?  [Ignoring territories]

In fact, there are only 7, and 4 will have occurred by the end of this week (IA/CO/MN/ME).  This only leaves Washington (March 3), Missouri (March 17), and Nebraska (early June) as states where Paul has a chance to abuse the system.

There are plenty of other caucus/convention states, mind you...but they're more like Nevada, in which the straw poll vote actually matters (NV/AK/ID/ND/KS/HI), or are completely smoke-filled rooms with no pretense of democracy and no chance of Paul infiltration (WY/MT).

Other than the 7 Iowa-style states, Paul may pick up a delegate here and there in states with true proportionality and no cutoff, but these are few and far between.

[Erc]

If Paul got (nearly) a majority in CD 5, than means he must have done terribly in CD 3 (i.e. the rest of Hennepin county).  I'm going to start digging through the precinct results and see what I can turn up.

[Erc]

Minnesota Results by (Current) Congressional District:

CD	Gingrich	Paul	Romney	Santorum	Write-In	Total
CD1	642	1601	885	2963	14	6105
	10.5%	26.2%	14.5%	48.5%	0.2%
CD 2	894	2146	1547	3402	26	8015
	11.2%	26.8%	19.3%	42.4%	0.3%
CD 3	799	1804	1865	2919	6	7393
	10.8%	24.4%	25.2%	39.5%	0.1%
CD 4	348	1216	711	1307	26	3608
	9.6%	33.7%	19.7%	36.2%	0.7%
CD 5	354	1525	745	1246	21	3891
	9.1%	39.2%	19.1%	32.0%	0.5%
CD 6	833	2361	1043	3603	11	7851
	10.6%	30.1%	13.3%	45.9%	0.1%
CD 7	666	1245	652	3164	27	5754
	11.6%	21.6%	11.3%	55.0%	0.5%
CD 8	740	1354	783	3372	12	6261
	11.8%	21.6%	12.5%	53.9%	0.2%
Total	5276	13252	8231	21976	143	48878
	10.8%	27.1%	16.8%	45.0%	0.3%

This does not change any of the analysis in the previous post; delegate counts remain the same.  Paul did indeed win CD 5, but Romney and Santorum have enough support to deprive him of making a clean sweep.

What this analysis does not account for:

1) The new CD borders.  Given the timing, it's unclear whether the BPOU conventions will use the new CD borders when electing delegates to the District Conventions, or how precise they're going to be with them.

2) Rounding errors.  Precincts only elect an integral number of delegates; if this number of delegates is small, this tends to disfavor small candidates.  If supporters of a particular candidate can manage a majority in a given precinct, they can likely elect a full slate of their supporters.  This would tend to favor Santorum (and perhaps Paul in certain places) at the expense of the other candidates.

3) The number of delegates each precinct / BPOU is entitled to is not determined by the turnout, but by the vote for Tom Emmer in the 2010 Gubernatorial Race.  As the two tend to be correlated, this isn't a huge effect.

4) Straw Poll results don't necessarily have anything to do with the delegates elected to the BPOU conventions (the Stealth Paul strategy).

Of these, 2) and 4) will probably have the largest effect.  I can't do anything about 4) without tracking down every delegate elected in the state of Minnesota (or taking the Paul campaign's word as gospel, which is inadvisable).  If I can find more information about how many delegates exactly each precinct caucus elected, I may be able to account for 2) in some fashion---but more likely there won't be any changes to the count until after the BPOU conventions, if even then.

Long story short...expect Santorum to do even better than these numbers in the end, Romney to do worse, and Paul to stay about the same (with an outside chance of doing much, much better if 4) is true).

The major question is, of course, whether Santorum can gain a majority at the statewide convention; this seems very likely, in fact.

A plausible final result (Santorum gains a majority statewide and in CD's 1 and 6):

Santorum - 29
Paul - 4
Romney - 4