The Republican primary will be huge in 2008. It will offer a choice between a no-sh**t fascist candidate (somebody that makes Bush and Buchanan look moderate and reasonable) and someone more from the McCain/Hagel/Pataki/Schwarzenegger/Giuliani wing of the party.
Bob Dornan? Senator Alan Keyes??? Any GOP Rep from Texas?
I see these:
Rudy Giuliani or George pataki (conservative enough???)
John McCain(conservative enough???)
Bill Frist (conservative enough, but majorly boring insider)
Tom Ridge (conservative enough??? methinks a good VP pick)
Bill Owens (conservative enough)
Steve Forbes (he's not dead or broke is he?)
How old is Ellizabeth Dole???
Is JC Watts completely out of politics?
Who thinks they'll still talk about Jeb2008 even though he's ruled it out? Isn't that part of the game?
The Five (Serious) Candidates for the Republican nomination in 2008:
Rudy Guiliani
John McCain
Tommy Thompson
Bill Owens
Jeb Bush
McCain and Jeb have denied any interest in running (Jeb more explicitly, but I say he'll declare an interest eventually. He's already got my vote in the primaries...)
Of the others:
If Keyes wasn't dead after 2000, he'll be dead after he loses to Obama by 50 points. He's the national laughing-stock, and would lose to Hillary in a Goldwater-esque fashion (without any of the AuH2O goodness).
Forbes: no way.
Liz Dole has a shot, in my opinion, if a lot of the candidates above (ie McCain and Jeb) pull out. But she'd be 72 (ditto with McCain, which could really hurt him)--both older than Reagan when he was inaugurated.
Bill Frist is ugly and a kitty-killer. He'll either be the Daschle or the Bob Graham of '08.
Tom Ridge is in a dead-end job. He might consider it, but I don't think he'd make it. Again, maybe VP.
Pataki wouldn't have a shot unless Rudy isn't running. And even then he wouldn't have much of a shot barring an absolutely disastrous slate of candidates.
Perry: No chance.
Romney: might win the NH primary, but he's got no chance outside New England. I doubt he'll run.
Bill Owens has a mighty good shot at the nomination at this point...
For the Democrats, I haven't looked at it as much...
It really depends on how they react to their loss in 2004 (if they win, barring an Extremely disastrous Kerry presidency, he won't have a renomination battle). If they thought they were too out of touch with the center, they'll pick a Clintonesque centrist. If they thought they lost because they didn't get the base, they'll pick a Deaniac liberal.
As for the Democratic field:
I heard Dean talk about a month ago...it sounds like he's interested, but wouldn't really have a shot unless there's no other liberal out there.
John Edwards...because he's got nothing better to do. Like Lieberman, he'll probably get smushed in the primaries after a poor showing as veep candidate.
Hillary. Appeals to both the Liberal and to the "we want Clinton back" sides of the party. Likely to win the nomination if she tries unless there are too many concerns that she's unelectable. In which case the race goes to...
Gov. Mark Warner (D-VA). Moderate from the South. Although he looks a tad bit like Kerry.
Other possibilities:
Bayh. Dunno if he has an interest though.
Russ Feingold, Bill Richardson--now I'm just picking names out of a hat.
